Iran has accused foreign enemies of trying to foment a “civil war” by fueling protests over Mahsa Amini’s death – harsh language that analysts warn could predict an even bloodier crackdown.

Fears that Iran is descending into deeper violence have been growing since Wednesday, when attackers on motorcycles gunned down nine people – including a woman and two boys, aged nine and 13 – in two mysterious attacks.

Officials in Iran were quick to blame “terrorists” backed by their Western enemies for being behind the attacks in the southern cities of Izeh and Isfahan, which authorities said also killed two security forces.

It was the second attack authorities blamed since protests erupted, which they described as terrorists, after at least 13 people were killed at a shrine in Shiraz, another city in southern Iran, on October 26.

But analysts say that regardless of who perpetrated the latest attacks, they could lead to an even bloodier response to the protests that erupted after Amini’s death on September 16 after her arrest for allegedly violating Iran’s women’s dress code.

“We have no idea what happened in Izeh and Isfahan – was it a terrorist group or possibly the regime itself?” said Henry Rome, an Iran researcher at the Washington Institute.

“In any case, the government is likely to use the attacks to send the message that the protests are undermining national security and opening the door to Western-backed terrorism,” he told AFP.

“The government is likely trying to capitalize on fears that Iran may be headed for civil war and that stronger action is needed.”

After Wednesday’s twin attacks, Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abollahian accused Israel and its western allies of plotting a “civil war” in the Islamic Republic.

Security services, Israel and Western politicians “have made plans for civil war and the destruction and dissolution of Iran,” he tweeted, adding that they “need to know that Iran is not Libya or Sudan.”

The Fars News Agency, which is affiliated with Iran’s powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, said Wednesday’s attacks showed “that those who want to dismantle the country aim to incite a civil war.”

At least 342 people, including 43 children and 26 women, have been killed in the raid since Amini’s death, Norway-based group Iran Human Rights said on Wednesday.

Protesters have been killed in 22 of Iran’s 31 provinces, including 123 in Sistan-Balochistan and 32 in Kurdistan — among the few provinces with a Sunni Muslim majority in the predominantly Shia country.

The regime’s crackdown after the attack in Izeh, a city in the ethnically diverse province of Khuzestan, “follows a broader trendline of greater police brutality in historically troubled provinces, particularly those with large populations of marginalized ethnic minorities,” Kita Fitzpatrick said. an Iran analyst at the American Enterprise Institute’s Critical Threats Project.

“Groups like the Islamic State – which the regime has blamed for the Izeh attack – could very well be trying to capitalize on the protests to carry out attacks within Iran’s borders,” she told AFP.

But, she added, “Some analysts are observing inconsistencies between the recent attacks in Iran and typical IS attacks.

“The regime will likely still seek to exploit these attacks and use them to justify a crackdown on the ongoing unrest.”

With an even bloodier response, the regime risks radicalizing a protest movement that has so far been led by women and has remained largely peaceful.

This week the number of protesters fighting back has increased, with more videos being posted on social media showing them clashing with security forces and setting their vehicles and bases on fire.

“It’s the state security forces that are starting the violence, but more and more people are reacting… and trying to defend themselves,” said Omid Memarian, senior Iran analyst at Democracy for the Arab World Now (DAWN).

“The government’s strategy was to create an environment of fear and terror for people to return home,” he told AFP.

“They use violence in the streets and harsh penalties through the judiciary to stop the protests,” but that approach has “increased people’s anger and anger,” Memarian said.

Independent researcher Mark Pyruz said the attacks on security forces on motorcycles, mob beatings by pro-government paramilitary Basij forces and the stoning of police officers at point-blank range “reminds me of the early stages of the Syrian civil war.”

“We still don’t have enough information on what’s going on in Iran” regarding the Izeh and Isfahan shootings, he said, adding that “it’s something to watch closely in the coming days.”