The popular mayor of Istanbul faces a political ban on Wednesday in a trial over his surprise election victory over an ally of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in 2019.

The fate of Ekrem Imamoglu is being closely watched for signs of judicial independence nine months ahead of the parliamentary elections in which Erdogan will fight to extend his two-decade rule.

Imamoglu, 52, is the most internationally recognized opposition leader who could run against Erdogan.

He also has the most intense personal rivalry with the powerful Turkish leader.

Imamoglu was stripped of his narrow March 2019 victory over the ruling party’s candidate after Erdogan – who launched his own career as mayor of Istanbul and considered the city his second home – refused to recognize the result.

Election officials reported discovering hundreds of thousands of “suspicious votes” after Imamoglu was sworn in.

Her decision to schedule a repeat election for this June sparked global condemnation and mobilized a wave of support for Imamoglu, including voters from the former ruling party.

Imamoglu won the second election with more than 800,000 votes.

But the normally soft-spoken mayor let his ongoing bitterness towards the ruling party spill over in November 2019.

“Those who canceled the March 31 elections are idiots,” he told reporters at the time.

Erdogan’s ruling AKP party took up the statement and sued the mayor for “insulting” officials.

Prosecutors have demanded that Imamoglu be banned from politics and imprisoned for 15 months – a relatively light sentence that almost never ends up behind bars.

Defense attorney Kemal Polat told AFP the mayor will immediately appeal a ban and keep his job while the case goes through the courts.

“Imamoglu can remain in his current position as mayor until the appeal process is completed. He wouldn’t have to resign,” said Polat.

The mayor was due to appear in court on Wednesday to hear the verdict.

Turkey’s western allies accuse Erdogan of undermining the independence of the courts and using them against political opponents after a failed military coup in 2016.

Erdogan responded to the attempted coup with a sweeping purge that jailed thousands on “terrorism” and other charges.

Everyone from human rights leaders and officials to opposition politicians – many from the main pro-Kurdish party – have been jailed in mass trials that have terrified broad sections of Turkish society.

The West urged Erdogan to comply with rulings by European courts calling for the release of several of his rivals.

Turkey’s status as a strategic member of NATO and as a Muslim-majority democracy in a volatile part of the world has helped preserve Erdogan’s links with the West.

But the 2019 vote saga made Imamoglu a global figure whose condemnation could raise the diplomatic stakes ahead of next year’s vote.

The court case comes with Turkey’s fragmented opposition parties still bickering over which candidate should run against Erdogan next June.

Imamoglu and Mansur Yavas – elected mayor of Ankara in 2019 – have emerged as two of the most popular opposition options due to their success at the ballot box.

Polls show that both Imamoglu and Yavas are beating Erdogan in a runoff election that would take place if no one got 50 percent of the vote in the first ballot.

Imamoglu’s office accused the ruling party of trying to “exclude him from the upcoming elections.”

Some political analysts agree.

“The authorities may be tempted to throw (Imamoglu) out of the race,” said analyst Sinan Ulgen from the Istanbul Research Institute Edam.

“The hands of the opposition would then be tied because they cannot risk calling for protests for fear of legitimizing the possible subsequent repression,” he said.