Man-made climate change likely contributed to the deadly floods that have engulfed parts of Pakistan in recent weeks, according to a quick analysis Thursday examining how much global warming was to blame.
An international team of climate scientists from the World Weather Attribution Group said rainfall in the hardest-hit regions had increased by up to 75 percent over the past few decades, concluding that human-made activities were likely driving record levels of August rainfall in the provinces Sindh and Balochistan have increased.
The resulting flooding affected over 33 million people, destroyed 1.7 million homes and killed nearly 1,400 people.
To determine what role global warming played in the downpours, the scientists analyzed weather data and computer simulations of today’s climate to determine the likelihood of such an event occurring amid the roughly 1.2 degree Celsius warming that human activities have been since caused by the industrial age.
They then compared that probability to data and simulations of conditions in past climates – that is, 1.2°C cooler than today.
They found that climate change has likely increased the 5-day total rainfall for Sindh and Balochistan by as much as 50 percent.
The analysis showed that the probability of such an event occurring in a given year under our current climatic conditions is about one percent.
“The same event would likely have been much less likely in a world without man-made greenhouse gas emissions, meaning climate change has made the extreme rains more likely,” the team said.
However, the study authors emphasized that due to historical large variations in seasonal monsoon precipitation over Pakistan, it is not possible to conclude that human-caused warming contributed significantly to the 60-day total precipitation amounts.
“What we saw in Pakistan is exactly what climate projections have been predicting for years,” said Friederike Otto, Lecturer in Climate Science at Imperial College London’s Grantham Institute.
“It’s also consistent with historical records showing that heavy rainfall in the region has increased dramatically since humans began emitting large amounts of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere.”
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Otto said that while it’s difficult to put an exact figure on how much man-made emissions caused the rains, “the fingerprints of global warming are obvious.”
The World Meteorological Organization said this week that weather-related disasters like the one in Pakistan have increased five-fold over the past 50 years, killing an average of 115 people every day.
The warning came as nations geared up for the COP27 climate summit in Egypt in November, where vulnerable countries are demanding rich, historic polluters compensate them for the climate-related losses and damage already hitting their economies and infrastructure.
Fahad Saeed, a researcher at the Center for Climate Change and Sustainable Development in Islamabad, said the floods showed the need for richer nations to radically increase funding to help others adapt to climate change – another key demand at COP27.
“Pakistan must also call on developed countries to take responsibility and assist the countries and peoples who bear the brunt of climate change with adaptation and loss and damage,” he said.
