In addition to sugar cane and soybeans sprouting from his fields in the interior of the state of São Paulo, José Odilon de Lima Neto plans to sow different crops for the first time this year.

“Due to the complexity of summer planting in Ukraine and Russia, there may be investment opportunities in wheat,” said a farmer near the city of Ribeirão Preto.

Since Moscow invaded neighbouring countries, international prices for grain have soared, reflecting concerns among the warring nations – which together account for about 30% of total wheat trade – It will be difficult to supply products to the dozens of countries that rely on them for imports.

As global food costs hit record levels across the board, the conflict has fueled what the organization’s food aid arm has called “devastating hunger,” according to a United Nations index.

Thousands of miles away, the signal from here nutrition crisis Spreading through the South American granaries of Brazil and Argentina, it is a major source of everything from soybeans and beef to corn and oranges.

many Agribusiness in the area The windfall from higher commodity prices has led some countries, such as De Lima Neto, to expand production or even switch to new areas.

But at the same time, rising costs or looming shortages of key inputs such as fuel, fertilizer and animal feed could weigh on their ability to help ensure global food security.

Russia’s attack on Ukraine began with decisions about the summer planting season in Latin America and Brazil’s second corn crop, making it harder for producers to react immediately, said Vitor Andrioli, an analyst at consultancy StoneX.

“Continued increases in the prices of these commodities could spur expansion of cereal and oilseed cultivation on the continent if the conflict persists,” he added.

Brazil has exported more grains this year than all of 2021, despite its predominantly tropical climate, which limits wheat cultivation. Experts believe the country — a traditional net importer of wheat — has the potential to become self-sufficient as the technology advances in the writing. Enough, even future net sellers.

Caio Carvalho, president of the Brazilian Agribusiness Association (Abag), cautioned that the broader sector is unlikely to significantly increase overall agricultural production in the short term due to doubts about the duration of the war and where it will be shipped.

“If producers don’t have a safe market to sell to, they can’t risk expanding supply,” he said. While Brazil has strong sales in China, the Middle East and Russia, many wealthier economies remain relatively closed to its products, he added.

Currently, Latin America’s dominant economy can help fill the corn supply gap. Before the invasion, Ukraine was projected to be the third-largest corn exporter, after Brazil, according to a recent USDA report.

Similar to soybeans, it is mainly used to feed animals, and Brazil is the third largest producer after the United States and China. Conab, an agricultural agency in the state of Brasilia, estimates that outbound corn shipments will increase by three-quarters by 2022.

“It’s a great opportunity,” said Cesar Ramalho, grower and chairman of the trade association Abramilho. “For Brazil, the price of corn is very attractive to increase production”.

Farmers in Argentina’s fertile pampas region are planting more sunflower seeds to take advantage of the disturbance. The plants are well-adapted to dry soil and require less fertilizer, an added incentive given the recent increase in the price of chemical nutrients and the forecast of dry weather later in the year.

But critics of the Buenos Aires government have warned that state intervention and high inflation of more than 50 percent are holding back further activity in the agricultural sector.

stricter protectionist measuresThey argue that export taxes of up to 33 percent and price controls on goods such as bread, combined with a chaotic exchange rate regime, could lead farmers to wait for conditions at home to improve.

“The risk is that the signal to grow more plants doesn’t get to them, and it’s not good for everyone, not just Argentina,” said Gus, who heads Los Grobo, one of the country’s largest agricultural groups. Gustavo Grobocopatel said. “Argentine production should be 40% higher than it is now [in agriculture]. “

In addition, a diesel shortage in Argentina sparked a strike by truckers, while warnings of possible impact on harvesting and transport of crops.

Another challenge is that this highly productive corner of the planet is still Severe drought period This inhibited the growth of agricultural output and caused economic losses.

For Brazil in particular, one problem was fertilizer, which became more expensive before the war. 85% of the country’s consumption of chemical nutrients comes from imports, of which about a quarter comes from Russia.

“For the September planting season, a lot depends on the availability of fertilizers. A lack could lead to a drop in productivity,” Abag’s Carvalho said. “I am anxious.”

On the other side of the commodities rebound, which has boosted arable farmers, meat producers that rely on grains for animal feed are also feeling the pinch.

Analysts say Brazil is already the world’s largest exporter of beef and chicken and can make up for any lost exports due to the war in Ukraine.

In some meat categories, however, overseas demand has failed to offset higher input costs and weakening domestic purchasing power, with poorer consumers cutting back on basic food items amid double-digit inflation.

In Brazil’s central-western state of Goias, pig farmer Euclides Costenaro is on the verge of oversupply and declining sales values. Like many of his peers, he is reducing the size of the herd from 5,000 sows to around 3,800.

“Today, the losses per producer range from 200 reais to 350 reais [$43 to $75] Every pig he resells,” he said. “The loss is heavy, we’ve never experienced it. “

Some livestock ranchers, such as Nabih Amin El Aouar, with 3,000 cattle in the state of Espirito Santo, have also encountered difficulties.

“Exports accelerated, but this did not fully compensate for the decline in domestic consumption,” he said.

Additional reporting by Carolina Ingizza in Sao Paulo