Births in advanced economies have largely recovered to pre-coronavirus levels, an analysis by the Financial Times showed, and experts say the recovery is partly due to stimulus to lessen the economic impact of the crisis.

Births began to plummet in late 2020 in the wake of the Covid-19 epidemic, with people locked in their homes, exacerbating an already dangerous demographic decline in rich countries.

This trend mirrors the downward trend seen during the 1918 influenza pandemic, the Great Depression and the 2008 global financial crisis. But an analysis of national data shows a rapid rebound in most developed countries.

“The short-term declines in birth rates observed in many countries are consistent with other historical crises . . . but in the case of Covid-19, these declines have been shorter,” United Nations says.

This is largely because of government spending and efforts to manufacture and distribute vaccines. Klaus Prettner, professor of economics at the Vienna University of Economics and Business, said the economic uncertainty caused by the pandemic was “resolved by stimulus programs and central bank expansionary responses”.

Impact of the pandemic

Sexual activity declined when many countries first imposed lockdowns in early 2020 in response to the pandemic, according to a survey by French polling firm Ifop. From the end of 2020 to the first half of 2021, nine months after the first lockdown, countries from China to France reported the lowest number of births on record.Italy has Fewer births in 2021 Anytime since the founding of the nation in 1861.

Fertility rate refers to the average number of babies a woman is expected to have during her lifetime.This is generally accepted Demographers believe that a country’s population can only grow without a net inflow if couples have at least 2.1 children on average. Fertility rates in many advanced economies are already well below this level.

Kate H Choi, director of the Center for the Study of Social Inequality at the University of California, said that when faced with “long-term catastrophic events that lead to high levels of uncertainty,” people tend to have fewer children. Corona-era couples “may not want to bring their children into the world if they don’t know where their next paycheck will come from,” Choi said.

But later in 2021, birth rates in countries including the U.S., northern Europe, Australia and Israel begin to recover — returning to even surpassing pre-pandemic trends in some cases, in what demographers say is a catch-up effect.

In England and Wales, births in the first half of 2021 fell by 5% compared to the same period in 2019. By the second half of the year, the number of births had returned to 2019 levels. By the end of 2021, these countries saw their first annual increase in births since 2015.

Spain saw more births in March and April 2021 than in the same period in 2020, after experiencing a sharp drop in births. In Germany, there were more births in March 2021 than in any other March in the past 20 years.

In the U.S, The Census Bureau observed The number of babies born between December 2020 and February 2021 was unusually low, equivalent to 763 fewer babies per day in December. “This is likely the result of the Covid-19 pandemic,” said Anne Morse, a demographer with the Census Bureau. In the second half of 2021, the number of births in the United States will be the same as in the same period in 2019.

Demographic experts and economists believe the monetary and fiscal stimulus many governments rolled out in the early months of the pandemic was a key factor in helping to avoid a continued decline in the birth rate.

Caroline Schmid, head of the Fertility and Population Ageing Unit at the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs, said the stimulus had played a role in preventing a sharp drop in fertility by providing a financial buffer against economic uncertainty.

“During and after the economic crisis, fertility rates have declined due to couples delaying childbearing due to rising unemployment, increased job insecurity and reduced household income,” Schmid said. “Monetary stimulus measures by some governments have helped prevent Fertility rates dropped sharply early in the pandemic.”

baby bust

That still leaves the world facing the same demographic time bomb as it did before the pandemic: falling fertility rates could slow global growth and put countries at the cost of ageing populations.

The global fertility rate peaked at 5 in 1960 and has been in free fall ever since. As a result, demographers believe that the world is on the verge of a natural population decline after centuries of rapid population growth.

According to a 2020 Lancet paper, the world population will peak at 9.7 billion around 2064 and drop to 8.7 billion by the end of the century. About 23 countries are projected to have their populations halved by 2100: Japan’s population will fall from a peak of 128 million in 2017 to less than 53 million; Italy’s population will increase from 61 million to 28 million.

The low fertility rate has triggered a series of economic events. Fewer young people lead to a smaller workforce, affecting taxes, pensions and health care contributions.

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“An economy with labor shortages may experience higher labor costs, lower productivity and lower living standards,” Cui said.

Christopher Murray, one of the authors of the Lancet report, said the economic and social impact of declining fertility could not be overstated. “We’re going to have to restructure society,” he said.

But the future doesn’t have to be the end of the world. In addition to the widely reported environmental benefits, declining fertility could also lead to increased government investment in education, Prettner said.

“When fertility falls, the government has more resources for education,” he said. “Many of the negative economic consequences of declining fertility rates can be compensated by the higher productivity these children later gain in the labor market.”

Additional reporting by Valentina Romei in London