Ive here. This is a convincing prediction of what the next phase of the war in Ukraine might look like and what the territorial disposition might be. Note that Helmer doesn’t see Russia’s plan as a disintegration, but a reorganization in a more federalized, or what the British might call a devolved structure.

Many might describe the kind of resolution Helmer is describing as a failure for Russia, but Russia never intended to occupy or conquer Ukraine. The goal is to ensure that Ukraine does not join NATO, and to demilitarize and denazify it. It’s always unclear what that last goal might mean. Scott Ritter describes one possible approach. Neo-Nazis make up an estimated 10 percent of the armed forces and are distributed across units by design.

With Russia surrounded by various groups it is clear that their choice is death or surrender, neo-Nazis are motivated to keep fighting as anyone with a Nazi tattoo could be executed or sent to the Gulag or, if senior, put on trial war crimes and then almost certainly executed.

So others are motivated to kill neo-Nazis and surrender. This kind of thing is almost unprecedented. Memories of fighting in Vietnam.

As such, Ritter sees a strong likelihood that the military will self-clean up and use it as an argument for Russia to end its operations sooner rather than later.

go through John Helmer He is the longest-serving foreign correspondent in Russia and the only Western correspondent to command his own bureau independently of a single country or business relationship. Helmer has also served as a professor of political science and an advisor to heads of government in Greece, the United States, and Asia.Originally Posted in dance with bears

This is a sign of civilized people who keep and respect their old things. When things broke, they put the pieces back together again.

at 19^th Centuries of rural Americans in Northeastern states like Pennsylvania have done this with their old tablecloths, skirts and curtains, turning the remnants into patchwork quilts. From hundreds of years ago, the Japanese who had to live in the earthquake zone had the idea of ??repairing broken ceramic plates, cups and jars.Instead of trying to make repairs seamless and invisible, they invented Kintsugi (Main image) – This is the art of filling in broken lines with lacquer, turning an old thing into a whole new one.

Soon, the Japanese became cheap lacquer stuffing (war) into gold (Kintsugi) and silver (silver wood). In this way the thrifty habits of the poor working class become the conspicuous consumption of the rich leisure class. *

Ukraine is a new thing. Depending on the region, language, religion, class and ideology displayed, its new or old is debatable. However, old and new, the civil war in eastern Ukraine since 2014, Russia’s special military operations since February 24, and the US war currently being directed by US officers in the underground tunnels of the Azovstal factory to destroy Russia against Ukraine. The last Ukrainian word means that the country cannot be put back together as before. Ukraine will have to repair and replace the damage.

Kintsugi Repaired cracks need to be filled with gold (lead image). This may not be the Ukrainian outcome the Americans and their German and British allies are insisting on, but they will have to contend with Russia’s plans after the second phase of battlefield operations is complete. Ukraine will be destroyed and kept in the state, according to a Moscow source familiar with the situation. “They don’t need to fix it,” the source said, “and they need to keep it broken.”

Coloring the map (lead image) with country colors is wishful thinking. The military exercise maps released by the two sides revealed lagging tactical objectives but did not reveal strategic plans.

Russian Defense Ministry, General Staff and their joint designation with President Vladimir Putin thing What the map will look like has not been announced; Putin’s recent statements suggest they are taking their time to make a decision.At this time, Putin said On Tuesday, “depending on the intensity of the military action.” “There was a lot of talk about the U.S. ‘ready to fight Russia to the last Ukrainian.’ Saying it there, saying it here, it’s true. That’s the nature of the current events.”

But after the battle with the last Ukrainian, what about Ukraine?

“Our job,” Putin continued, “is to achieve all our goals while minimizing these losses. And we will act at our own pace in accordance with the preliminary plans of the General Command. [??????????? ??????]. I’ve said it many times. There is no need to repeat all this in a press conference. “

Putin’s map Ukraine’s? “action in certain areas Ukraine [???????????? ???????? ???????] Only aimed at deterring the enemy, strikes to destroy military infrastructure and create conditions for more aggressive action Donbas territory [?????????? ????????]At the same time, I will repeat what I said in the early hours of February 24, the goal of our entire operation is to help those living in the Donbass who feel inseparable from Russia and who have suffered eight years of genocide. The only question is how. “

Battlefield Maps of Russian Origin, April 13

Click on source for enlargement and operations:  https://southfront.org/

US-NATO-sourced battlefield map, April 13

Source: https://www.understandingwar.org/
The Institute for the Study of War, Washington, DC, is directed by this group of state-funded Russia warfighters.

US Intelligence Maneuver Forecast Chart, April 13

Click on source for enlargement and locations: https://www.nytimes.com/

For the battlefield assessment of Jacques Baud, a Swiss Army colonel serving on the NATO staff, now working with the French Centre for Intelligence Research (Cf2R) in Paris, began here. For Porter’s analysis of how Ukraine did it View.

One Canadian veteran with NATO operational expertise analyzed the operational map this way: “I think the High Command is attracting Ukrainians by opening up the east-west corridor, so they don’t care too much about goods coming from Ukraine, right or wrong. West. Ukraine. People are being drawn into the cauldron east of the Dnieper; this move is also aided by their firm belief in their own propaganda – “We drove them out of Kyiv! “We’ve stopped them in Kharkiv and Donbass!” “” Mariupol is still resisting! They also believe that what their American trainers and advisers have been telling them is the effectiveness of NATO weapons and other support. The media and politicians in this haven here are constantly spreading nonsense about Russia’s weakness, and it doesn’t do them any good. This attitude seems to suit the Russians very well.”

“One thing is for sure – the High Command is amassing very important reserves, while the Ukrainians are doing everything they can, both domestically and internationally, to strengthen their lines. A huge battle is definitely brewing now. Will there be an attack in the east? A coordinated attack on Ukrainian logistics at the same time? This is a big possibility. With the sea blockade and Russian strikes on all fuel depots and stocks from the western border to eastern hubs like Dnipropetrovsk, the Ukrainians seem to be The impact of fuel shortages is also being felt.”

“What happens when Stavka says Go! All those Ukrainians, foreign white supremacists and mercenaries are locked up and destroyed despite the delivery of weapons? When America’s main strategy for this war – building suspension SS and other fascist flag proxy armies – what happens when they are overtly and thoroughly defeated in a relatively short period of time – a war waged by a very short US-led army armed to more than NATO Better equipment, training and readiness standards?

“What I see is that the Russians are restoring the civil authorities, from Kherson in the south to Sumy in the north. I don’t believe the Galicians will end up in Odessa or Kharkiv and Sumy “If the Eastern Army is destroyed, Zelensky’s regime could be plunged into infighting. He could be lynched or smuggled away before the Russians get there.”

A well-informed Moscow source with close ties to the Donbas leadership is expected once the next two major battles are over – the first in Kramatorsk and the second in Kharkiv, Ukraine The map of the future will become clear.

Battlefield map of Kramatorsk and Kharkov

According to the Donbas leadership, Russia’s plan is to reform Ukraine into “a loose federation, in which the control areas will be the Russian-speaking Orthodox regions of Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaha Porozh, Kherson, Nikolayev, Mariupol, and Odessa. They will be run by the newly formed government and locally recruited security forces, both controlled by Russia. Dnipropet Rovsk, Poltava and Kremenchuk are likely to be part of this federal alliance that will be strong enough to win the next Ukrainian presidential election to replace Vladimir Zelensky.” Zelen Skye’s term is scheduled to end in March 2024. Likely to end early.

Sources admit that Kyiv’s future in this new federal regime remains uncertain.

According to the Donbas leadership, the future of western Galicia will be “a small federation of competing ethnic groups – Catholic Ukrainians, Hungarians, Slovaks, Poles, Romanians, etc.” , with no exportable resources except refugees, mercenaries and girls, blocked by Belarus to the north and Russia to the east, the Galician forts built by the US and Canada around Lviv will be stripped of their political power in Kyiv. of heavy weapons, fuel reserves and command centers destroyed, they will be motivated to turn their ideological and personal weapons against each other. Between them and the east, Russia’s national demilitarization plan will deter large-scale threats and the Dnieper Return of NATO bases east.

Sources say this is not a plan for the old Ukraine to split, or for the new Russia to join. It’s a “keep Ukraine broken” plan in which the big rift line will be moved to the west – and remain there.

[*] To understand and appreciate the Japanese art of kintsugi, look at this.