A blanket EU embargo on Russian energy will trigger a deep recession in Germany that will drop output by 2.2 percent next year and wipe out more than 400,000 jobs, according to Germany’s top economic body.

The new forecast, released Wednesday, is more pessimistic than most earlier economic studies and could give Political cover for the government of Chancellor Olaf Schultz against calls for an immediate ban on Russian oil and gas imports, Germany relies heavily on.

The EU agreed last week coal import ban From Russia since August. Some member states have called for a further EU ban on oil and gas imports, but Berlin has rejected such a move, arguing it would be too damaging to the economy.

Five of Germany’s top economic research houses forecast that if Russia were to be cut off from all energy supplies, GDP growth in Europe’s largest economy would slow sharply from 2.9% last year to 1.9% this year before shrinking by 2.2% in 2018. %. 2023.

It would be one of the worst recessions in German history, although not as severe as one shrink by 4.6% The fall in GDP due to the impact of the 2020 coronavirus pandemic.

The agencies predict that an immediate halt to Russian energy imports will increase unemployment in Germany from 2.37 million this year to 2.79 million next year. They estimate that inflation will hit a full-year record of 7.3% in 2022 before falling to 5% next year.

“If the gas supply is cut off, the German economy will experience a severe recession,” said Stefan Koos, deputy director of the Kiel Institute for World Economics. “In terms of economic policy, it will be important to support marketable production structures without stopping structural change.”

Pressure on the government mounted on Tuesday after three German backbenchers, the president of the German parliament’s foreign affairs, defense and European committees, called for an immediate embargo on Russian oil following a visit to Ukraine.

However, a survey released the next day by the Erensbach Institute found that 30 percent of Germans expressed support for an immediate ban on all Russian energy imports, while only 24 percent agreed with the statement: “We can freeze for freedom.”

Even as Russia’s oil and gas imports continue to flow, the institutes say Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, supply chain bottlenecks caused by the pandemic and Inflation soars will affect output. They cut their baseline forecast for German economic growth this year to 2.7% from 4.8% in October.

The new forecast was submitted to the government by the German Institute for Economic Research, the ifo Institute, the Kiel Institute for World Economics, the Halley Institute for Economic Research and the RWI.

Earlier studies, including those published by Germany’s National Academy of Sciences Leopoldina and Econtribute, predicted cutting off Russia’s energy supply would be “manageable” for the economy and would reduce Germany’s GDP by 0.5 to 3 percent.