U.S. job growth likely to slow in January amid surge in Covid-19 cases linked to more contagious variant of Omicron, Biden administration officials warn marginalized workers And caused some businesses to temporarily close.

Employers are expected to add just 150,000 new jobs last month, according to a consensus forecast compiled by Bloomberg. Some economists even think a contraction is possible.

After months of rapid declines, the unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 3.9% in January, in line with the December Added 199,000 jobs.

The labor force participation rate, which tracks the proportion of the population that is employed or looking for work, is also expected to be flat at 61.9% in January, more than 1 percentage point below the pre-pandemic threshold.

The data, which will be released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics at 8:30 a.m. EDT on Friday, were collected during the height of the U.S. Omicron surge, which drove record numbers of Covid cases and hospitalizations and deaths. number of people.

Top economic officials in the Biden administration have been trying to pull out ahead of Friday’s data, with Brian Deese, director of the National Economic Council, saying this week’s January jobs numbers “may look a little odd.”

The White House has touted a strong labor market recovery as one of the most important achievements of Biden’s first year in office, otherwise plagued by legislative setbacks.Despite signing a bipartisan infrastructure bill, his landmark 1.75 ton “Better Rebuilt” Spending plans stalled in Congress.

“It turns out that the peak of the Omicron case coincided with the collection of wage data,” Jared Bernstein, a member of Biden’s Council of Economic Advisers, told CNN this week. “If you’re not working, if you’re on leave without pay Fake, you don’t count on the payroll.”

Employers were already struggling to fill their ranks ahead of the winter wave, as fears of contracting Covid and childcare concerns prevented many from joining the workforce.

The number of job vacancies is swell As a result, more than 10 million people were reported in the last month of 2021. That means there are 1.7 job openings for every unemployed worker, the highest level since the U.S. government began collecting data 20 years ago.

Some workers tried to capitalize on the demand for new hires and left their jobs Look for higher paying positions. A total of 4.3 million Americans quit their jobs in December, down slightly from November’s record of 4.5 million.

U.S. labor costs turn around increase rapidly, as employers raise wages and benefits in order to compete for talent. Average hourly earnings are expected to rise another 0.5% in January, or 5.2% annually.

The Fed is expected to outpace January’s employment slump as it draw a roadmap The first rate hike since 2018 at the next policy meeting in March.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell acknowledged that the economy could “soften” because of Omicron, but said any weakness should be “temporary.”

“We think the underlying strength of the economy should be apparent very quickly after that,” he said at a news conference after the FOMC meeting in January.

High inflation forced the Fed to scale back its monetary policy support faster than initially planned.Senior officials also open More aggressive rate hikes this year are even on the doorstep of 0.5 percentage point hikes, rather than the 25 basis point hikes that have become the norm.

The central bank is also expected to begin shrinking its nearly $9 trillion balance sheet shortly after the first rate adjustment to further tighten monetary policy.