Data released this month by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that consumer price inflation has soared to 7%, many investors were stunned. No wonder: it was the fastest jump since 1982.

But there’s another number that should be of concern: 17 percent. This is the annual inflation rate for overall freight costs last month, according to (deep buried) Office Data Section. For the long-haul freight sector, Number Even scarier: 25%.

This is bad news for businesses and consumers because Nearly three-quarters of freight In the US it is shipped by truck. Or to put it another way, if you want to understand the reasons behind this dreaded 7% inflation figure, don’t just track raw material, energy, or cross-border shipping costs; also pay attention to truck drivers who are often overlooked.

So is this price surge just a “temporary” glitch? quoted phrases Fed officials last year? Just think so.After all, basic economics suggest that a surge in demand for trucking—the kind the U.S. economy has seen as it recovers from a pandemic recession—should prompt bloody capitalist corporations to increase supply (by finding more trucks and truck drivers), thereby keeping inflation in check. In fact, at the start of the pandemic, economists BLS publishes lengthy study This argues that the trucking market is a place where labor supply can indeed adjust to demand, as free market enthusiasts would expect.

But today, with so many potential structural obstacles in the market, expanding capacity is incredibly difficult. In other words, the current economic boom has revealed a series of flaws in trucking that were previously either hidden or ignored. That makes freight a powerful symbol of broader problems in the U.S. political economy. The problems revealed by the transit world are by no means “temporary”.

To understand this, consider the problem behind the price surge. One is the rise in oil prices, and the chaos in the global supply chain has led to problems in the domestic freight cycle. But the bigger problem seems to be the lack of human truck drivers.

Chris Spear, head of the American Trucking Association, said: said this week The industry, which collectively employs about 3 million people, currently lacks more than 80,000 workers. Part of the shortage reflects coronavirus-related delays in people returning to work. However, spear estimate This number will double in the next few years.

At first glance, this may seem strange. After all, a few years ago, pundits predicted that blue-collar trucking jobs would be wiped out by robot drivers.

But in reality, any broad shift to automation is unlikely for many years due to political opposition and regulatory constraints — voters and politicians alike fear those robot truckers. Meanwhile, younger workers appear to be avoiding the job. FOur five truck drivers today Over 45 years old.

It’s probably because of all the bot chatter. However, there are practical — short-term — reasons for this trend. On paper, truck drivers can earn around $100,000 a year, which is a hefty salary for a blue-collar job. But entrants need to obtain a state permit, which is expensive and time-consuming.

In addition, most drivers today are self-employed contractors, “carrying the burden of gas, insurance and maintenance costs, which reduces their take-home pay,” as White House documents Noticed last month. Even under normal circumstances, this makes the job precarious, especially since “long-haul, fully loaded truck drivers spend an average of only 6.5 hours per workday despite being allowed to drive up to 11 hours” — and they don’t get remuneration. free time.

During the pandemic, however, insecurity has become exacerbated by medical risks and unpredictable supply chain delays. As a result, other blue-collar jobs—such as construction—seem to be increasingly attractive.as truck driver omar alvarez It was recently declared in an opinion piece: “The real shortage is the lack of good union jobs that fairly compensate workers and treat us with the dignity and respect we deserve.”

Is there any solution? The White House is trying to capitalize on industrial policy adjustments: last month it promised In an effort to lower the minimum age for trucking from 21 to 18, targeting veterans, states are being forced to simplify their licensing systems and work with states to subsidize training.Shipping company are trying to embrace innovation, using an AI platform to manage schedules or Spanish-speaking recruiters to tap the Hispanic market to attract more workers. Fees paid by companies have also increased, leading to a rise in take-home pay of about 7% to 12% this year, according to the White House.

But it’s unlikely to fill the driver gap anytime soon; or without a bigger wage hike, a better safety net for drivers, or a sudden drop in economic demand. The latter is likely; December’s month-on-month freight inflation figure was lower than November’s.

However, since the monthly series is not seasonally adjusted, it is dangerous to treat it as a trend. For now, here’s the key: These truckers are a powerful example of how difficult it is to stop inflation with monetary policy alone. This is the dilemma between the Fed and the White House.

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