good afternoon. After the Brexit briefing, the United Kingdom will return in 2022. This year, Brexit may finally be “completed”—or at least the first stage of Brexit.

If everything goes according to plan, this will be divided into two parts: first, an agreement will be reached within the next two to three months to place the post-Brexit Northern Ireland trade rules on a politically and economically sustainable basis; the second is phased Implement comprehensive border control on imported goods From the European Union to the United Kingdom, more of them will be in subsequent editions.

Regarding the trade issue in Northern Ireland, after the Christmas and New Year holidays, as far as I know, officials did take a vacation. Next week, they will seriously try to negotiate an agreement with Brussels in the UK. Irish Foreign Minister Simon Covini is also preparing for some basic work in London tonight.

When thinking about the challenges facing the upcoming negotiations, it is worth mentioning that the European Union and the United Kingdom have reached an agreement in 2019-the ignorant Northern Ireland Protocol.In retrospect, it was just the British government Declare it unsustainable.

The original agreement is still the benchmark for the EU to measure its concessions, which is likely to become the root source of tension between the two sides when they try to reach a compromise.

Following the resignation of Lord David Frost, Foreign Secretary Liz Terrass will now negotiate with EU Brexit Commissioner Maros Sevkovic. But even though Truss might lighten her tone with her signature stupid optimism, it didn’t change the underlying problem.

It is still a fact that Boris Johnson’s decision to keep Northern Ireland in the EU’s single commodity market-which requires EU-style border inspections of goods from the UK to the region-has been violated since its entry into force in 2020.

The agreement was never fully implemented, initially because the EU and the UK agreed to a “grace period” to allow companies time to adapt, but then because the UK has extended these grace periods, firstly unilaterally, and later reluctantly indulged by Brussels.

The difficulty lies in the fact that the benchmark for Britain’s success is to further reduce the partially implemented Irish Sea border, while the EU is still seeking to defend the basic concept of the agreement, which requires goods to comply with EU rules.

Therefore, although Frost decided to ease the European Court’s request before Christmas and recognized the need for some control over the borders of the Irish Sea, which created some momentum for reaching an agreement before Christmas, there is still a certain distance between the two parties. .

In October, the European Union put forward its ideas Smooth Border, Sevcovic claim Customs inspections will be reduced by 50%, and so-called “SPS” inspections of plant and animal products will be reduced by 80%. However, these are not figures recognized on the ground by the industry in the UK or Northern Ireland.

One reason is that the EU may argue that it is reducing SPS inspections by “80%” from the original transaction-which requires the full implementation of export health certificates (for goods from Dover to Calais) that have never been required.

Some EU officials are talking about reducing the “intensity” of inspections, not the “number”. Therefore, the number of rows in the customs form may be reduced by 50%, but you still need the form.

This is good, but the real impact is not the semantic details. When she tries to reach an agreement, she will concentrate on that she can sell to disturbed backbenchers and, fortunately, the more moderate unions in Northern Ireland. Activists.

A key point of contention cited by officials and trade groups is the EU’s Proposal to create a “fast track” Applies to goods that can be proven to be consumed only in Northern Ireland-but only to “primary products originating in the UK”.

Trade groups say that, in fact, this means that British food manufacturers using Brazilian beef in ready-to-eat foods must “export” their products to Northern Ireland through the European Union or Dublin. They said this is unrealistic.

The EU-looking back at the original agreement-considers this restriction to be the basis of the agreement and a necessary condition to prevent Northern Ireland from becoming a back door for non-UK products to enter the EU single market. It also believes that there is a large amount of meat in the single market that can be made into Northern Irish pies.

In the end, this is the agreement signed by Johnson, but it is expected that this month from the Northern Ireland Trade Organization and the UK media will try to let the EU understand the challenges that this approach will bring to the NI supply chain and its impact on the region Consumer choice and politics have an impact.

There is also a gap in goods in the other direction-from Northern Ireland to the United Kingdom-and the British government has promised to allow NI companies “unrestricted access” to the internal British market.

The difficulty is that according to EU regulations, goods leaving the EU single market need to submit an exit declaration. Taking into account the political symbolism of this point, the European Union agreed in the 2019 agreement that this procedure is not required for Northern Ireland goods shipped to the United Kingdom, but data from the shipping list can be accepted as an alternative.

However, in its Requested reform of the protocol in July last year, The British government stated that the system “will not work unless it makes cumbersome new requirements to collect more information” and requires new solutions to “finally eliminate these requirements”.

The European Union has not Suggested package The changes in October last year, as far as the current situation is concerned, Brussels continues to stick to the original agreement. Solving this problem will be another key part of the negotiation.

Resolving disagreements on such issues is at the core of reaching a viable agreement. The UK has accepted that shipping goods from Birmingham to Belfast is different from shipping goods from Birmingham to Brighton. The question is how different does it really need to be?

With the Northern Ireland elections May is looming, The pressure to reach an agreement is increasing, especially because the British government is facing a series of other unfavorable factors — inflation, labor shortages, supply chain problems, rising energy prices — which means that a considerable number of cabinets want to resolve the issue of Northern Ireland. on the bed.

As the Minister of Foreign Affairs who specializes in the highest positions, Truth can be said to have a broader understanding of the strategic priorities of the United Kingdom than Frost, and the European Union also pointed out the logic of making deals.

But all politics are ultimately local. Any transaction in the Truss strike will concretize the Irish Sea trade border that Johnson has always denied. To sell it back home, Truss will need a victory compared to the benchmarks of the United Kingdom, not the European Union.

Do you work in an industry affected by the UK’s withdrawal from the EU’s single market and customs union? If so, how does this change hurt you and your business—even beneficial?Please keep your feedback [email protected].

Brexit figures

The looming negotiation is of course a deteriorating economic environment. British “Financial Times” annual survey Of economists believe that Brexit will exacerbate this situation.

This is not as simple as trade friction, but increased bureaucracy and reduced imports and exports; the termination of free movement has reduced the flexibility of the labor market; and the investment environment is not optimistic, partly because the UK is no longer a convenient gateway to the economy EU Single Market.

In their view Paul de GraowayProfessor, London School of Economics: “The recovery is driven by optimism about the future… Brexit will cause long-term pessimism on the future of the British economy.”

Business sentiment seems to have been severe.according to December PMI survey data The UK is the only Western economy whose exports have fallen-a quarter of British manufacturers cited Brexit as the reason for the decline in exports.

Finally, three Brexit stories not to be missed

Jude Weber of Belfast wrote that one year has passed, and as far as Northern Ireland is concerned, Brexit is far from complete.As she pointed out In this excellent work, The UK region is in an important election year, and opinion polls show that for the first time the Trade Union Party has lost a majority of seats-and one of the most critical issues in the May 5th election is Northern Ireland’s post-Brexit trade arrangements.

Conservatives want to know What happened to their promised Brexit, Robert Shrimsley said in his latest column. As he wrote: “As the rise in personal and corporate taxes has just been introduced, ministers have promised not to reduce employment rights and the role of the state is increasing. After Brexit, low taxes and low supervision are predatory in the United Kingdom. The vision seems to be better than before. Singapore on the Thames, hello Sweden.”

The government is rectifying Agricultural subsidies in the UK After Brexit, in the next two decades, it plans to restore the land almost twice the size of London to its natural state. The initial project aimed to restore 10,000 hectares of wildlife habitat and reduce carbon emissions equivalent to 25,000 cars, while improving the habitat of about half of the threatened species in England. Find out what they are and more About the new plan.