According to a survey conducted by the Financial Times, economists expect that the European Central Bank will continue to purchase net assets within two years-after other major central banks have begun to scale down.

Three-quarters of the 32 economists surveyed by the Financial Times said they expect the European Central Bank to stop expanding its 4.6 trillion euro bond portfolio in 2023; only more than one-quarter said they think Will do so before then.

Many central banks in the world have already started Reduce their monetary stimulus In response to the sharp rise in inflation as the global economy rebounded from the impact of the coronavirus pandemic.

The European Central Bank is slower than most; last December, its president Christine Lagarde stated that its 185 million euro pandemic response plan will Stop net bond purchases In March, the earlier asset purchase plan will be “gradually” reduced to at least October. However, she did not specify when she would stop buying net assets altogether.

In contrast, the Fed said last month that it would Acceleration taper Of bond purchases will be completed at the end of March, and the Bank of England said after raising interest rates last month that its net purchases Will stop at the end of the year.

William De Vijlder, chief economist at BNP Paribas, is one of those predicting that the European Central Bank will continue to purchase debt on a net basis until 2023. He said that the biggest risk facing the Eurozone economy is “continued supply interruptions, leading to continued high inflation, leading to a comprehensive reassessment of the European Central Bank’s policy outlook.”

Eurozone inflation Soared to 4.9% In November, driven by soaring energy prices, demand recovery and supply chain bottlenecks, it hit a record high since the single currency was launched more than 20 years ago.

Last year, the European Central Bank agreed to a new strategy that promised not to raise deposit interest rates from the current low of minus 0.5% until it is convinced that inflation will reach its target of 2% in the next two years and maintain it for another year. It also requires potential inflation (excluding energy and food prices) to be “sufficiently advanced” to achieve its goals. It stated that asset purchases will stop shortly before the interest rate hike.

More than half of the economists surveyed by the Financial Times said that they expect the European Central Bank to begin raising deposit rates in 2023. More than a quarter of people think it will not do so before 2024.

Lena Komileva, chief economist at G+ Economics, predicts that the European Central Bank will stop buying bonds this year and raise interest rates before the end of 2023. Like several other members, she warned of the risks of premature tightening of monetary policy-this is the practice of the European Central Bank and was criticized. In 2011, it raised interest rates twice on the cusp of the euro zone sovereign debt crisis.

“Although the impact of each new pandemic wave on growth is fading, and inflation may peak at the end of 2021, it is anxious to withdraw fiscal and monetary support for private sector capital (industry, banks, and companies) amid the ongoing pandemic. The policy is by far the biggest prospect at risk,” she said.

Nearly four-fifths of economists predict that the European Central Bank will tighten policies in the summer to reduce the attractiveness of the subsidized loan interest rates it provides to banks, which is the so-called targeted long-term refinancing operation. These 2.2-ton loans have an interest rate as low as minus 1%, and they provide banks with an easy source of profit by effectively disbursing loans to the bank.

Economists have different opinions on whether the EU’s newly established 800 billion euro recovery fund will greatly reduce the possibility of a sell-off in the euro zone bond market. The fund provides grants and loans from Brussels to member states to support their economic recovery in exchange for structural reforms.

Alberto Gallo, portfolio manager of Algebris Investments, said: “The level of external interest spreads has narrowed, and volatility may increase as the European Central Bank reduces purchases.” The spread between the cost of borrowing. For example, Germany.

He warned: “In particular, we may see fluctuations around the French elections and possibly the Italian elections.”