Yves came to this article to provide useful services, trying to explain Manchin’s position on Build Back Better (the name is too bad, it shows that Team Dem has never had its heart). The author also believes that an agreement can be reached. But this may ignore whether the progressives in the House of Representatives will accept further concessions to Manchin.

Author: Samuel Walkman, professor of political science at West Virginia University.Originally published on dialogue

Qiao Manqin is not opposed to using shotguns for policies he doesn’t like.

In 2018, the Senator Starred in political ads In it he explained how Litigation to repeal the Affordable Care Act -What his opponent, State Attorney General Patrick Morrisey was trying to do at the time-would deprive many West Virginians of health care. Then Manchin took out a shotgun and unloaded it in Morrissey’s lawsuit.

The ad titled “Dead Wrong” also showed Manchin’s support for the popular show and also issued Gun stance.

This is also very instructive for understanding the political challenges Manchin faced in the Biden administration’s “Rebuild Better” bill-Manchin seems to have broken this legislation.

as a Scholars and natives For someone who has been following West Virginia politics for a long time, I know that Manchin is usually skilled in balancing support for government programs that will benefit the people of the state with Social conservatism Many people insist. This is what he did in the “big mistake” advertisement, and he is now trying to provide tangible benefits in some areas while “stand up” against the president and the Democratic leadership in other areas.

What did Polaris say?

It is reasonable to assume that West Virginians will support many of the elements contained in “Rebuild Better.” Biden’s package of legislation aims to address issues ranging from childcare costs to climate change.

The legislation not only covers Child tax credit, Which will pay each child up to $300 per month to families across the United States, and Improvements to the Affordable Care Act, Upgraded healthcare infrastructure and better housing opportunities.The biggest part of it is US$555 billion is earmarked for climate change – Representing the first major legislative action against climate in the United States

In a state High poverty rate, Rural health services are scarce and Climate change threat As a result of frequent and severe flooding, it seems unthinkable that the senator does not support legislation.

However, on December 19, 2021, Manchin Fox News announces He will not. What Manchin did on Fox News illustrates the public sentiment in West Virginia.

It sparked a very public “Battle of Jos”, and Biden insisted that Manchin Malicious treatment After months of personal coaxing and negotiation by the president. As far as Manchin is concerned, According to reports, Biden provided everything In addition to the child tax credit, the reconstruction is better.

This struggle threatens the consequences of people and the party. The feasibility of the ruling ability of the Democratic majority party entering the 2022 midterm elections is threatened. But this conflict also brought a major problem to Manchin himself. Biden regarded Manchin’s opposition to child tax credits as a political pressure point- Publicly humiliate West Virginians He failed to support a measure that would support many families in his state.

The settlement obscures a broad agreement

To understand what Manchin opposes, it is useful to understand the effect of settlement on the multidimensional bill.

Usually, major legislative initiatives have their own bills. But everyone needs to pass the Senate by 60 votes to avoid obstruction bills that might eventually stifle the bill.To overcome this obstacle, the Democrats grouped all Biden’s actions into the so-called Budget Reconciliation Act, It only requires a majority of votes to pass-a much lower threshold, a threshold that a unified Democratic Party can meet in the Senate.

However, because legislators must vote for a diversified package, disagreements in one area may defeat the entire settlement bill—even if there is a broad consensus on other proposals.In this case, Manchin wants to give up the child tax credit, but reportedly put forward a proposal that includes improvements to the ACA, health care infrastructure, and climate change provisions-which is very important for a state senator. amazing Rely on fossil fuels For economic growth and stability.

Manchin is likely to return to the negotiating table in the next few weeks, without or despite the public being ashamed of the president’s child tax credit.

Typical Manchin fulcrum

West Virginians tend to be conservative on typical cultural war issues such as guns, abortion, and race.

Alleged support for better reconstruction of West Virginia is May be exaggerated Among voters—voting is rare and usually done by supportive organizations—although West Virginians usually support government programs that benefit them. Historically, winning elections in West Virginia required candidates to commit to bringing family benefits to the state. This is the method Manchin usually uses to provide a policy that gains majority support while demonstrating his loyalty to the issue of culture wars.

Manchin keeps mentioning his Voters as his North Star ——”If I can’t go home and explain, I can’t vote for it.”

Normally, Manchin will be under pressure from the more liberal Democratic Party on social issues. Criticism from the wider party is the fuel for his positioning and policy goals in the state. On these issues, the more criticism he receives from the left, the better. He is good at using this pressure to formulate policies that are generally supported in the state, such as those shown in “Dead Wrong” advertisements.

Public pressure on child tax credits is not normal and will not provide Manchin with the same fulcrum. West Virginians value programs such as child tax credits.

also, State support The child tax credit meant Manchin was politically exposed, which undermined his ability to maintain the fragile alliances he usually relied on.And despite Progressive protest against the main challengerThere is no doubt that no other Democrat can occupy a seat in West Virginia.

Manchin’s apparent stubbornness can be understood as Two waysEither he is a conservative Democrat who has failed to support the president’s legislative agenda, or he just wants to prioritize items on that agenda to maintain overall spending goals.

Manchin’s opposition to child tax credits reflects his concerns about how monthly benefits will affect budgets. At the same time, colleagues said he was worried about how low-income citizens would spend money. Reportedly worrying about it Spent on drugs.

The second focus echoes a common conservative analogy. However, if such comments might hurt politicians in the Free State, it is understandable in the context of the social conservatism of voters in West Virginia.

Although Manchin’s comments sparked predictions about his position Destined to be rebuilt better, It may not look like At a glance.

Senators are willing to accept all the other major clauses in the bill, which leaves plenty of room for bargaining. If Manchin can find a way to be his usual fulcrum-to support the Democratic proposal while satisfying his voters that he is socially conservative and on the left-he is likely to join and put away his shotgun .