Remember how we were told that one of the reasons mRNA vaccines are so fashionable, that it would be a breeze to launch a new version to deal with Covid variants… even getting them approved, manufactured and distributed may cause delays.

Although Pfizer and other vaccine manufacturers have stated that they may launch a booster for Omicron in about three months, the government is discussing the possibility of launching. This seems strange:

According to the original Imperial College data, the 2 doses of the vaccine will have little effect on Omicron, and there has been no previous infection (although other studies have shown that previous infections may reduce the severity; the jury still cannot resolve many important Omicron problem)

There is ample evidence that boosters of current vaccines can reduce the chance of serious consequences, but the degree is different from earlier variants. However, even for the initial variants, it is not clear whether the booster can produce lasting immunity like the first injection. It may be shorter, even before you know how it performs for Omicron. Israel started the fourth round of booster injections only five months after providing boosters to high-risk groups. In other words, considering some, maybe many, members of the public will not be satisfied with the vaccination system more than twice a year. If you want to keep it up to date, another reason to support Omicron specific boosters is that it may continue to Compared with vaccines currently developed against wild-type viruses, Omicron takes longer.

It is now reasonable to say that the vaccine manufacturer did not actively create the Delta version. One reason is that Delta somewhat overlaps with older variants before becoming dominant. Second, the original vaccine’s performance in reducing the risk of hospitalization and death did not decrease as Omicron increased. Unfortunately, compared with the Delta vaccine, the vaccine has done more to reduce the transmission of wild-type viruses, but this change has not received much mention.

But as far as I know, the idea of ??developing a new vaccine against Delta has not even been taken seriously. Our GM described an additional problem that I have never mentioned in the media: the Delta variant is orthogonal to some other variants. Therefore, although the original vaccine is very effective against wild-type and Delta and “orthogonal” variants, the vaccine against Delta does not have much effect against orthogonal variants. Therefore, sticking to the original vaccine is a reasonable compromise “sufficient to deal with all current seasons.”

But as we know, Omicron is very different. Therefore, as pointed out by Pfizer and other companies now, it is indeed disturbing to see the official lowering of expectations for obtaining Omicron boosters around March.from The highest regulator stated that the demand for Omicron vaccine depends on the staying power of the variant In the state:

A top regulator told STAT in an interview with STAT on Wednesday that whether Americans need additional vaccines specifically for the rapidly spreading variant of the Omicron coronavirus may depend on how long it will spread in the United States.

“If it turns out that Omicron is a new variant that is actually adapted, then of course we may need Omicron-specific vaccines,” said Peter Marks, the top vaccine regulator of the Food and Drug Administration. “On the other hand, if this is just a passing variant, we get [a new variant] After a month or two, we won’t need that. “

Max added that Omicron is “a very, very fast virus” that “may spread through this country in a few weeks”, and he is not sure if Omicron specific jabs are needed…

All three vaccine manufacturers authorized in the United States—Pfizer, Moderna, and Johnson & Johnson—are currently preparing Omicron-specific vaccines. Pfizer said it may start delivering its Omicron-specific vaccine before March while awaiting FDA approval.

Ok? Unless you assume that Omicron will be replaced by another variant, even those who are promoted will need a new injection within 5-6 months. Even assuming full compliance, if you play this game 3 times, the 75% chance of not getting a serious infection drops to 42%, just like 15-18 months under the Omicron system. If the Omicron booster reduces the chance of a serious infection by 90%, then the risk of a physical case in the same period of time with full compliance is 73%. And the risk reduction is higher than 90%, the better the long-term odds.

And you don’t have to delve into the article to discover our suspicion that this news reflects the government’s preferences and seems to be correct, especially when compared with the fact that vaccine manufacturers are promoting Omicron products:

The Biden administration has stated that it plans to counter the spread of Omicron through existing boosters, which are not specifically designed for Omicron. Early data shows that boosters from Moderna and Pfizer significantly enhance the protection of Omicron variants…

Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and Biden’s chief medical adviser on Covid-19 response, expressed doubts about the need for Omicron’s specific lens.

Even if you want to know whether it is wise to have to get the Covid vaccine repeatedly, the risk/reward trade-off is obviously better, all other things being equal, a more effective vaccine is used. Therefore, if you plan to use mRNA vaccines against Omicron, you need to use an Omicron booster that will definitely be more effective for Omicron, rather than a less useful vaccine designed to defeat wild-type variants.

General Motors confirmed our pessimistic view:

There are two possibilities here, they are not mutually exclusive, in fact they are likely to be part of the same scene

1. They expect it to sweep the entire population in the next 3 months, so there is no point in developing a new vaccine

2. The next variant will not originate from Omicron. Given the experience so far, this is quite possible-so far, no dominant variant is derived from the previous dominant variant, and it has all returned to B.1. This must be changed at some point-there will not be a surviving ghost B.1 lineage forever-but considering how long the variant obviously takes to be cooked, I hope the next one, if it is not B.1.X Again from Alpha, Beta, Gamma, P.1 or some other. It will be different from Delta and Omicron. So they are waiting for the next thing they expect completely different again.

This has no epidemiological significance-you want people to have as wide a range of immunity as possible, so if you vaccinate them with Omicron, it will make them better for future mutations compared to another WT booster Prepare.

But from a corporate point of view, this makes sense-once Omicron passes, there will be no demand for Omicron vaccines.

From a narrative control perspective, this makes sense-when they start offering variant-specific vaccines, expect future variants to do the same. We are only now seeing true diversity. Then you have three questions:

First of all, you need to truly achieve this expectation. If you have to revaccinate every 3-4 months, this is logically impossible.

Secondly, this exposed the madness and complete bankruptcy of the entire pure vaccine method. So don’t go there unless you have to.

Third, a key goal is to get people accustomed to the idea that they will reinfect endlessly. If you make them look forward to a mutation-specific vaccine, then you stay away from achieving it. The long-term goal is to make people satisfied with their annual “natural booster”, regardless of whether they are vaccinated or not.

But at some point there will be no choice.

Please note that the SARS-2 vaccine does not work against SARS-1 at all, or even against severe diseases (this has been tested in a mouse model, vaccinated mice and unvaccinated SARS-CoV Mice die as quickly and frequently-1 challenge). The antigenic distance between Wuhan WT and Omicron is one third of the antigenic distance between Wuhan WT and SARS-CoV-1, and there are more different things (such as SHC014). So there is enough space to escape and evolve further.

PS I forgot to mention another cross-protection measure-SARS-1 vaccine does not work against WIV-1, WIV-1 is another SARS-type coronavirus that people studied before the pandemic

We have supported ourselves to enter a collective corner through the “vax vax vax” method, with little attention to treatment and non-drug intervention or eradication. The fact that life expectancy in the United States has dropped by 1.8 years due to Covid in 2020 should be seen as an outrage and a call for (better) action. Instead, the collective reaction seemed to be a shrug.