At the end of the first year of the new trade terms between the UK and the European Union, the most striking thing about Brexit is that the UK borders are not dramatic.

There is almost no wake at the port, and there is almost no noticeable interruption in the flow of trade.But the activity was much lower than expected, even before the arrival of stricter import controls next year, Especially food and agricultural products.

BrexitEconomists said that the overall impact of the epidemic on the British economy and people’s living standards seems to be negative, but it is uncertain.

They stated that the new regulations that began when the UK officially left the EU on January 1 had already hit growth. According to data from the Office of Budget Responsibility, over time, these measures may worsen the situation in the country by about 4% compared to the opposite of the 2016 EU referendum.

The debate among economists on Brexit rarely involves whether economic growth and living standards will be impacted, but how much the impact will be.

Economists say that the exact cost is still unknown because the impact is not immediate and it is difficult to learn from The impact of the coronavirus crisis.

Economists say that one of the easiest measures to assess Brexit is to check the overall performance of the UK since the referendum in June 2016, so as to consider the uncertainty brought about by the referendum on Brexit and the country’s experience thereafter.

Growth in the UK lags behind the US and the Eurozone. The UK’s GDP in the third quarter of 2021 was 3.9% higher than in the second quarter of 2016. However, during the same period, the Eurozone grew by 6.2% and the United States grew by 10.6%.

Although the poor performance of the British economy is not controversial, there are many reasons besides Brexit.

Economists worry that the difference in GDP calculated by the National Bureau of Statistics of the United Kingdom may temporarily depress Britain’s figures. They are also concerned about the different potential growth rates unrelated to Brexit and the different experiences of the Covid-19 pandemic.

Because of these potentially confounding causes of economic weakness, analysts have tried to measure the impact of Brexit more directly, focusing on the impact on trade.

John Springford, the deputy director of the European Reform Center think tank, estimated the possible trade performance of the UK based on the model “doppelgänger UK” based on the performance of similar countries.

The model shows that, as of October (the most recent month for which data is available), if the United Kingdom did not leave the EU Customs Union and the single market in January, Britain’s goods imports and exports were 15.7% lower than expected.

The analysis pointed out that with the departure of EU nationals, Brexit “makes it more difficult for the supply side of the British economy to adapt to the reopening.” [sectors after lockdown was lifted],” Springford said.

He added that the uncertainty after the referendum and the depreciation of the pound sterling make the economy expected to reduce national income by about 4% to 5% compared to expectations when the UK voted to stay in Europe.

Julian Jessop, an independent economist and researcher on the think tank of the Institute of Economic Affairs, is not opposed to the negative economic impact of Brexit so far, even though he supports Britain’s decision to withdraw from the European Union.

“There is no doubt that what you can measure is negative,” he said.

Jessop added that lower trade will lead to lower growth, but how trade activity will affect the economy is “extremely uncertain.” However, he said that the adverse effects of the reduction in trade with the EU will diminish over time.

Although the debate is now less intense, Springford is not opposed to the idea that the overall economy has been hit may not be clear. He said that the “big question” facing economists is whether the impact of trade will translate into a loss of GDP.

If the performance of merchandise trade has been negative so far, Sarah Hall, a professor of economic geography at the University of Nottingham, believes that the impact on the service industry in the UK is more a “refocusing of geography” than a huge loss.

Her research shows that in the second quarter of this year, UK service exports fell by 14% globally compared to two years ago, which reflects the impact of Covid-19, especially the impact on the tourism industry. However, exports to the European Union fell by 30%, indicating that the impact on business with the European continent was magnified.

Hall predicts that over time, the UK will try to restructure its service industry to make it more of a global hub, especially in the financial sector, and believes that this has a certain chance of success. She said that although the final result is negative, it will not be the “end of the world.”

The shortage of truck drivers, farm workers and slaughterhouse workers has become an early issue for the end of the free movement of labor. However, economists were surprised by the smooth introduction of the new visa system to curb losses.

Jonathan Portes, a professor at King’s College London, said that the “substantial decline in EU immigration” is not surprising, because anyone who wants to come to the UK will do so before requiring a visa in 2021.

“We have seen a significant increase in skilled work visas before the pandemic, especially in the number of medical and nursing visas,” he said. “The NHS quickly repositioned itself from EU workers to non-EU workers.”

“I don’t think the Ministry of the Interior can provide a new system,” he added.

Economists emphasize that data comparisons are still highly uncertain.

Springford said that the new import rules implemented in the first half of 2022 may add more friction, but the UK Revenue and Customs has promised to put trade flows under control, which means that there will only be minimal additional negative impacts.

“If the new rules cause a lot of problems at the border, HMRC will change the procedures,” he predicted.

IMF President Kristalina Georgieva summarized the British position in mid-December. While acknowledging the specific issues that cast a shadow over the medium-term outlook, she said: “We are still unable to determine to what extent this is caused by the pandemic and what role Brexit might play in it.”

The OECD warned in December that the relationship between the UK and the EU is very important to its economic prospects. “The deterioration of trade relations with the EU may also put pressure on the medium-term economic outlook,” it said.

Therefore, the outside suggestion is that Brexit has caused some damage to the standard of living in the UK, and every effort should be made to repair relations with the EU to minimize further damage.