In most years, the world will get better. It is true that people rarely feel this way, but it is human nature: we worry about disasters in the news—earthquakes, wars, famines, or pandemics—and miss the gradual but relentless increase in production, technology, and understanding. In recent decades, these forces have lifted hundreds of millions of people out of poverty, as social scientists such as Hans Roslin, Max Rother, and Steven Pink have described. By stopping and carefully accounting, you can see the process in action year by year.

When The last time I did this exercise was in 2019, It is easy to draw conclusions about life improvement. But some years are different. Since the nuclear standoff reached its peak during the Cold War, the chaos caused by the Covid-19 pandemic has been the biggest challenge for mankind to control its own situation. The interesting thing is: Has the world gotten better in 2020 and 2021? Or does the pandemic signal an actual setback for human progress? My answer is: possible and no.

Perhaps the best starting point is the pandemic itself.Although the statistics are only estimates, they directly lead to Approximately 275 million infections And 5 million people died and had a serious secondary impact on living standards. The lockdown and travel restrictions prevented us from contacting our families.

The emergence of Omicron is particularly tragic, but in the long run, Covid-19 may be worse. First, after decades of no pandemic, what has emerged may be more contagious and deadly-a large number of past diseases, including SARS in 2003, have killed more than 10% of infected people. What we have is survivable for most people. Second, the development of vaccines has achieved amazing success.Doctors pioneer and manage new mRNA technology Nearly 9 billion doses In just 21 months after the outbreak. Covid-19 is terrible, yes, but it is not a catastrophe.

Third, it is important to note that it is our prosperity that makes the virus so destructive. Developed countries are willing and able to pay a high price for saving a few lives. 50 or 100 years ago, when diseases swept much younger people, life would go on as usual. Whether the blockade is good or bad, we have the ability to make a choice.

The damage to the global economy is smaller than the Covid-19 incident might indicate. In fact, it is amazing. In most wealthy countries, output in 2021 is still lower than in 2019, but during the pandemic, the overall world economy grew by 2.6%. This proves the effectiveness of the capitalist system. Even in the most extreme health emergency in a century, it still achieved sufficient growth to lift people out of poverty.

Some countries, especially countries that rely on tourism or island economies, such as Thailand or the Caribbean, have seen a decline in living standards, while some very poor countries, such as Afghanistan and Myanmar, have suffered new political crises, which may cause Many countries have regressed. year. But they are offset by other emerging economies such as Bangladesh, China, Vietnam, Ethiopia, Ghana and Kenya, which have lost some of their growth but are still richer now than they were a few years ago.

So far, mankind has survived the pandemic, and its material prosperity is intact and even improved. However, on the contrary, many threats to our future security and prosperity have become worse.

The concentration of carbon dioxide at the Mauna Loa Volcano Observatory continues to rise, from a peak of 414 parts per million in 2019 to nearly 420 ppm in 2021. Although carbon emissions did fall during the pandemic, they rebounded quickly. The Observatory said that when measuring the carbon concentration in the atmosphere, it did not find a clear signal of a pandemic.

The COP26 summit in Glasgow was as disappointing as ever. Encouragement for climate comes from private companies: 2020 and 2021 are the years when electric vehicles begin to become mainstream. They provide another technological cornerstone for achieving a zero-emissions future. More is still needed, but this progress inspires hope.

In contrast, geopolitics is not. Since 1989, a decisive factor in global growth has been peace and security. In Taiwan and Ukraine, this no longer seems guaranteed, which raises questions about the entire global trading system on which prosperity depends. The signs of a new nuclear arms race between the United States, Russia, and China are disturbing—nuclear weapons are still the main contender for how humanity ultimately destroys itself.

Worst of all, this is a period of democratic retreat. According to Freedom House, 2020 is the worst year of 15 years of decline in democratic governance. The pandemic is a boon for authoritarians and a formidable challenge for liberal democracies. In the long run, freedom and prosperity are intertwined.

In general, humankind has become more prosperous to some extent, but the foundation of prosperity for peace, environmental stability, and freedom and democracy is deteriorating. Roughly call it uniform. This is the worst assessment in decades. However, since it was achieved in the context of a pandemic, perhaps there is still reason to cheer this Christmas.

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