Greg Treverton was once the chief forecaster of the United States.As Chairman of the National Intelligence Council, he is responsible for overseeing the US government’s quadrennial Global trend Report. In his 2017 report, he cautiously acknowledged the weaknesses of the United States itself. It points to “increasing inequality” and “highly polarized politics.” But the report optimistically concludes that the United States has an “inclusive ideal.” .. Remains a key advantage”.

In the four years of Treverton, now in academia, a more pessimistic view has been adopted.Last week, he published an article articleCo-authored with Karen Treverton, titled “A Civil War Is Coming.” It believes that the differences between the red and blue United States are now so extreme that some kind of division is inevitable. The division may be peaceful and involves “a looser federation.” But it can also be violent. The Trevortons pointed out ominously: “Republicans are more than twice as likely to own guns as Democrats.”

If this is just an isolated view, it may not make much sense. But other well-known American analysts have reached similar dystopian conclusions.See publication next month How the Civil War started Barbara Walter of the University of California is the leading academic authority on the subject.she debate The United States meets the standards of countries on the verge of internal violent conflict. In her view, this will appear as a “rather consistent stream of terrorist attacks” rather than a conflict between standing forces.

Even scholars who have not clearly focused on political violence are becoming increasingly pessimistic. Thomas Edsall, who tracks social science trends for The New York Times, famous Last week, political scientists increasingly argued that “returning to traditional democratic norms (in the United States) will be extremely difficult, if not impossible.”

This panic and frustration is not limited to the “blue” America.Republicans even more likely The Democrats say that the country’s democracy is in danger — a reflection of Donald Trump’s insistence that the 2016 election was stolen from him. Civil war talk is also common on the American right.Senator Ted Cruz meditation Last month’s news about Texas leaving the union.Michael Anton, who recently served on the Trump National Security Council Comparison of The United States today is based on the state of the country before the Civil War and argues: “The Americans are more The disagreement with us on the eve of that great conflict was no less than. “

The deep melancholy of the American elite is related to the broader sense of national decline. One of the few things that Republicans and Democrats agree on is that the United States should now treat China as a serious and dangerous global competitor. Until recently, most Americans believed that no matter what other problems they encountered, the United States would maintain its technological advantage over China. But this can no longer be taken for granted. In a recent article, Graham Allison of Harvard University and former Google CEO Eric Schmidt, debate “China will soon lead the United States in technology.”

The almost desperate sentiment of the United States is fostering the opposite sentiment of the Chinese elite-increasingly believing that their country is surpassing the United States and will eventually replace it as the dominant force in the world. In a recent speech, Chinese leader Xi Jinping, Announce “The rise of the East, the decline of the West.”

The fact that 800,000 people died in the United States due to the Covid-19 pandemic, while China claims that the number of deaths is less than 5,000 is often cited as evidence of the superiority of the Chinese system.

China’s growing confidence is permeating official exchanges between the two countries. When U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Brinken condemned China’s actions on Hong Kong and Taiwan, Chinese Secretary of State Yang Jiechi’s reaction was dramatic contempt. debate: “The United States is not qualified to say that it wants to speak to China from the perspective of strength.”

Of course, in a closed system like China, it is difficult to know whether official statements about the superiority of the Chinese system reflect true self-confidence. Critics who speak out against Xi Jinping often end up in jail. Zhang ZhanA citizen journalist expressed doubts about the official account of what happened in Wuhan, where the epidemic originated, and was sentenced to four years in prison.But foreign observers and journalists who travel extensively outside Beijing Report The self-confidence and nationalism of the central government seems to be widely recognized by local Communist Party officials and the wider population.

The combination of current American democratic crises—combined with increased confidence in authoritarian states—reminiscent of the 1930s. The Great Depression convinced many people in the United States and around the world that liberal democracy has fatal flaws. The one-party states of the Soviet Union, Mussolini’s Italy and Nazi Germany declared their superior efficiency to their own people and political pilgrims from the West.

Facts have proved that the shining image of authoritarian power in the 1930s concealed their deep problems, while the apparent weakness of the United States concealed its deep resilience. Those who still regard the United States as the global guardian of political freedom have to hope that history is repeating itself.

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