I kind of buried lede in mine last week Structural or transitional? Post; we studied some inflationary factors, including Supply chain, goods and services, semiconductors and automobiles, energy, All of these are well understood.

Then there is the salary part we discussed. In case it accidentally slips away, let me share the money with you:

“Median real wage There was no change from 1979 to 2014; the actual minimum wage in 2015 was the same as in 1949. “

This is amazing; it clearly shows how the quartile of the minimum wage is Decades behind; (Half a century of being unhappy has no real gains? No wonder so many people are angry).A possible and simple explanation for what is currently happening is that these wages are overdue. Catch up.

In other words, we are experiencing a Generational resetting of the minimum wage All over most of the United States.

This is an”Great reset. “In many ways, the economy is parallel to another reset of the American economy-the period after World War II. There are many similarities, but the most fundamental difference between now and then is the shortage of workers. Promoting this. The factors include:

—— Reduce immigration (2m)
—— New business launch (1 meter)
-Lack of childcare services (1m)
—— Coronavirus disease death (500000)
– Early retirement (1m)
– Not in the labor force (1M)

But those complaints only allow us to partially explain the 10 million job vacancies. I suspect that what is happening is only a large-scale wage cut, which has been too low at the bottom of the pay scale for too long.

The current environment of rising wages in the lowest quartile and shortage of workers indicates that the labor market misprises wages relative to consumer demand. Given the high exit rate and the formation of new business, I tried to explain other things that are happening—not just repricing, more extensive adjustments are taking place.¹

Part of the reason for artificially lowering the minimum wage is the successful lobbying of fast food and low-end retail. They helped make decades of entry-level jobs become a deflationary factor. The boomerang we see today is a large-scale reset, because the market is trying to find a new balance.

Unlike 40 years of moderate wage growth and moderate inflation, the economy is experiencing this relaxation (almost) simultaneously.

Before:
Great reset (June 2, 2021)

Structural or transitional? (November 23, 2021)

Who quit and why? (November 19, 2021)

Elvis (your waiter) left the building (July 9, 2021)

Inflation reset (June 1, 2021)

Change the balance of power? (April 16, 2021)

U.S. wages

_________

1. As shown in the link above, we have been discussing for 6 months that workers start their own businesses by themselves, destroying the status quo.Nice to see Wall Street Journal finally I caught up with this understanding today.