Coronavirus economic impact update

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Will the increase in infections, especially the spread of Delta variants, stop the global recovery from the pandemic?

As our big reading details, advanced The economy has been “whipped” With the emergence of new cases, some people are forced to change their plans for reopening. “The narrative seems to have changed from’Look at how inflation has risen!’.’Look at how growth has slowed down!'” an analyst wrote.

Today, we highlight the growing concerns around the world, especially in Asia-from China and South Korea arrive Indonesia and Singapore.

A growing body of evidence points to the business impact of Delta variants.Toyota has Cessation of business in Thailand. In Australia, this variant has been severe Repelled business activity, According to today’s PMI survey.

Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam has implemented a new Curfew from 6 p.m. to 6 a.m. Try to contain a wave of cases caused by this variant.As Our Lex column notesThe country has the lowest labor cost in the region, and it is also the production base for sneakers of Adidas in Germany and its American rival Nike. Many of these companies’ local suppliers have been hit by the Covid-19 shutdown, coupled with a shortage of containers, which may make these new Kanye West trainers more difficult to obtain this Christmas than usual.

Fear is not limited to Asia. In Europe, business confidence in Germany (see below) First drop in six months, And European Central Bank President Christina Lagarde warned last week that the Delta variant is “a growing source of uncertainty.”

In the United States, the chief medical adviser Anthony Fauci said that the country “May be in trouble”, Unless it does a better job in reaching unvaccinated people.Los Angeles County reported a shocking Delta-driven infections increase Sunday, after the state eased restrictions on businesses and locations on June 15. More than 90% of people currently hospitalized have not been vaccinated.At the national level, the U.S. government is considering Guidelines for tightening masks Among those who have been vaccinated.

As in the past, developing economies in Asia and developing countries are most vulnerable to delta transmission. Africa, The government has few opportunities to obtain vaccines, and its ability to implement new blockades or support economic growth is limited.

Global economy

German business confidence for First time in six monthsAccording to the closely watched Ifo survey, concerns about supply chain disruptions and increased coronavirus infections have grown. Ifo President Clemens Fuest said that the service industry expects sales figures to continue to rise, but in the manufacturing industry, “the scarcity of intermediate products has become more and more serious, and more and more companies complain about the lack of skilled workers.

Millions of people lost their jobs during the pandemic, many faced hunger, inflation made life more difficult, but New product boom Is giving people hope Brazil. As our Big Read explained, the country provides some of the most important raw materials for the global economy, from soybeans and sugar to huge iron ore deposits and deep-sea oil.

Tunisian Young democracy is in crisis after the president of the country Remove the prime minister and suspend parliament Because of its handling of pandemics and worsening economic crises. The country has also suffered terrorist attacks against the tourism industry, and political differences have made it difficult to reach an agreement on the IMF’s US$4 billion loan.

Business

The outlook looks brighter European Bank Last year they were forced to set aside billions of dollars in anticipation of a wave of loan defaults.this is ours A guide to what to expect In the second quarter performance season.

British ministers meet today to decide which “key workers” will be exempted Self-isolation if “Ping” by the NHS app Tell them that they have had contact with an infected person. Currently, the list includes some food industries, as well as energy, telecommunications and transportation.Business groups have Lobby hard Changes due to staff shortages.

Ryanair Following the competitor easyJet, through a report Bookings surge Thanks to vaccinations, EU digital travel passes, and relaxation of some travel restrictions.British Heathrow Airport Also reported a Income halved It also stated that in the first half of 2021, the cumulative loss of the pandemic has now reached 2.9 billion pounds.

market

What investors expect to receive after inflation 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond, The most important government bond in the world, there are Hit a record low Tommy Steubington, a capital market correspondent, wrote that in the autumn that had a significant impact on global markets.

Wednesday, the United States Federal Reserve The first meeting will be held since it was hinted that monetary policy might be tightened earlier than expected.this is ours A guide to the Fed’s hawks and doves, Who will discuss when to start “shrinking” the Fed’s $120 billion monthly bond purchase plan is the right time.

At the same time, some analysts accused the Fed of record-breaking Wealth inequality In the United States, even though it tries to help low-income Americans, because its stimulus plan raises the price of assets held by the rich. An analyst at UBS said: “After Covid, inequality has surged.” “We are increasing wealth for high-income earners… The Fed is trying to solve the problem of inequality, but in some ways, it seems Is increasing inequality.”

Express your opinion

Toranomon Comment Mourning foreign city-states:

As an expat who has lived in East Asia for nearly 40 years, I agree with the anonymity these cities can provide, although it is superficial, it is a special kind of freedom. Being ignored by more than 90% of the local population is a strange liberation. But some of us did settle down with local partners, we bought residential properties and obtained residency rights. For me, one of the joys of living in Singapore is being able to spend three of the four weekends in neighboring countries such as Malaysia or Thailand; in Hong Kong, jumping on a plane to Taiwan, Japan or South Korea is second nature . The abrupt termination of air travel in March 2020 put an end to this comfortable arrangement, and being trapped in a geographically claustrophobic city is no longer interesting.

Final thoughts

Compared to the achievements of rich countries, the number of Olympic medals in smaller and poorer countries seems to be lower, but what if the results are adjusted economically?Browse our Alternative ranking See which countries have more power than their weight.