Scholars find that Brexit cuts British service exports by 110 billion pounds

Scholars find that Brexit cuts British service exports by 110 billion pounds

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The latest research shows that Brexit has shrunk British service exports by more than 110 billion pounds in four years, highlighting the far-reaching trade impact of Britain’s decision to leave the European Union.

Experts from Aston University in Birmingham found that from 2016 to 2019, UK service exports were 113 billion pounds lower than the UK in June 2016 when it did not vote to withdraw from the European Union.

Researchers have calculated this number by predicting how industries from IT and finance to business services will continue to follow the previous development methods and compared it with actual development since the Brexit vote. The gap is 113 billion pounds.

Du Jun, professor of economics at Aston Business School, said: “We have found that people are seriously concerned about the damage to the UK’s service trade status and the potential spillover effects on the economy and service-related jobs.

The survey results pointed out that after the UK and the UK reached an agreement with Brussels after Brexit, UK service exporters will face potential challenges in maintaining trade with the EU.

The agreement contains only minimal terms for financial and professional services (industry vital to the UK economy). 2019 UK Has a surplus of 18 billion pounds In the service trade with the EU, the goods trade deficit is 97 billion pounds.

Data for 2020 are not included in the Aston study because the epidemic has greatly distorted the economy. Du told the Financial Times that as the influence of the pandemic diminishes, the trend of service companies leaving the UK may accelerate.

“The Covid era brought difficulties to the transfer of companies and individuals. [which] Slowed down the relocation process. . . Now, this situation will pick up, and it will get worse as companies see little progress in the UK-Europe negotiations. I think this is just the beginning,” she said.

In terms of currency, financial services exports have been hit hardest because banks, insurance companies and asset management companies have transferred thousands of people and billions of dollars in capital from hubs in the City of London and Canary Wharf to Frankfurt, Paris, New centers in Amsterdam and Dublin so that they can trade seamlessly with customers after Brexit. Aston’s research found that other UK industries most affected include business services, tourism, transportation and information technology.

“The effect behind the scenes [from leaving the EU] John Springford, deputy director of the European Reform Center think tank, said he cited research data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the London School of Economics and the Tony Blair Global Institute. change. He said the data showed that Britain’s trade with the European Union fell by one-fifth due to Brexit.

He added: “Compared with the historical branch of the UK staying in the EU (or actually in the single market), Brexit has made the UK poorer.”

Ireland’s cumulative service exports from 2016 to 2019 are 126 billion pounds higher than the 2016 trend forecast. Aston’s professor believes that this is because Ireland won British business after Brexit. Irish economists objected to this.

“Ireland’s service export surge is obviously mainly due to ICT exports (Facebook, Google, etc.),” Conall Mac CoilleThe chief economist of Davy, Ireland’s largest stockbroker, refers to the fields of information, communications and technology. “These companies have already operated in Ireland before the referendum and have witnessed explosive growth since then.”



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