COP27 entered its final week on Monday, as rich carbon polluters and developing countries bicker over how to accelerate and fund emissions cuts.
The stalemate arises as advanced economies are being pushed to recognize the need to compensate their developing competitors for accelerating climate change, and as total funding needs appear poised to run into trillions rather than billions of dollars.
Somewhere in the middle, China — which accounts for the largest share of global greenhouse gas emissions at 30 percent — is feeling pressure from both sides not only to improve its carbon reduction targets but also to act as a donor nation, negotiator, and analysts say.
At last year’s UN climate summit in Glasgow, nearly 200 countries vowed to “keep alive” the Paris Agreement’s ambitious target of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.
Warming of nearly 1.2°C has so far led to a cascade of increasingly severe climate disasters, such as the floods that submerged a third of Pakistan this summer, killing at least 1,700 and causing $30 billion to $40 billion in damage to have.
The Glasgow Pact called on nations to step up their emissions reduction commitments ahead of this year’s summit in the Red Sea resort of Sharm el-Sheikh.but with little immediate reception by the nations.
These leavesThe world is on track to warm by about 2.5C – enough, scientists say, to trigger dangerous climate tipping points.
– ‘Makes our life easier’ –
Meanwhile, China and India have questioned the 1.5 degree target, with Beijing noting that the binding target agreed in Paris is “well below” 2 degrees. The 1.5°C is a tentative target, but has now been confirmed by science as a far safer global threshold.
“Egypt does not intend to be the country that hosts a retreat from what was achieved in Glasgow,” US special envoy for climate issues John Kerry said over the weekend, adding that “most countries here do not intend have to take a step backwards”.
Midway through COP27, countries are at an impasse awaiting the arrival of ministers who will cut political knots above negotiator pay grades.
“All major political crisis issues are unresolved,” said Alden Meyer, senior analyst at climate think tank E3G.
A reality check report released at COP27 last week showed that CO2 emissions from coal, gas and oil are on track to hit record levels in 2022.
To accelerate decarbonization, many developing countries – including small island states whose existence is threatened by sea level rise – are advocating a deeper commitment to the 1.5 degree target.
Negotiators in Sharm el-Sheikh will look to a bilateral meeting between China’s Xi Jinping and US President Joe Biden in Bali on Monday, and the communiqué from a G20 meeting both will attend afterwards, for signals backing the deadlock in Iran could overcome Egypt.
“Confirming the 1.5 degree target in Bali would make our lives easier,” said a senior negotiator at the climate talks.
– “Polluters have to pay” –
When it comes to money, Egypt focuses on so-called Loss and Damage, UN language for life, property and cultural heritage lost in natural disasters.
Wealthy nations, fearful of creating an indefinite liability regime, agreed only this year to put this thorny issue on the official agenda.
Developing countries are calling for the creation of a separate facility, but the US and European Union – while not ruling out such an outcome – have said they prefer using existing financial channels.
“This is the most high-profile and political issue at the COP,” Meyer said.
On Monday, the G7 and nearly 60 nations most vulnerable to climate change officially launched a program to provide financial assistance to communities hit by climate-related disasters, with approximately $211 million in initial funding.
Kenneth Ofori-Atta, Ghana’s finance minister and chair of the “V20” group of nations most affected by the impacts of climate change, said the program was “long overdue”.
Meanwhile, another lane of talks has opened up about how much money the Global South will receive – after current pledges of $100 billion a year expire in 2024 – to help green their economies and prepare for future warming to prepare.
Options range from expanding access to IMF and World Bank funds, to a windfall tax on fossil fuel companies, to expanding the donor base to include China, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and other nations.
“China and India are big polluters and the polluter has to pay,” Gaston Browne, Prime Minister of Antigua and Barbuda, said last week on behalf of the AOSIS coalition of small island states.
“I don’t think there are free tickets for any country.”
