The last time Russian President Vladimir Putin felt isolated at a G20 summit was in 2014, shortly after he conquered Crimea – and he was so shunned that he left early.
Eight years later, after launching a full-scale offensive in Ukraine and threatening the West with nuclear weapons in February, the 70-year-old Russian leader opted to skip this week’s G20 meeting on the tropical island of Bali altogether.
Observers say the Kremlin is trying to protect the Russian leader from a storm of condemnation in Indonesia, but Putin’s failure to show up risks further isolating a country already battered by unprecedented Western sanctions.
Alexei Malashenko, senior researcher at the Institute for Dialogue of Civilizations, said Putin did not want to be publicly humiliated again, recalling that at the 2014 Brisbane Summit, Putin was placed on the extreme flank of the traditional family photo.
“On the summit you have to talk to people and be photographed,” said Malashenko.
“And who will he be speaking to and how exactly will he be photographed?”
The G20 meeting is inevitably overshadowed by Moscow’s offensive in Ukraine, which has rattled global energy markets and exacerbated food shortages.
Fyodor Lukyanov, a foreign policy expert close to the Kremlin, indicated that Putin is not ready to back down on the Ukraine issue.
“His position is known, it will not change. The position of the other side is also known,” said Lukyanov, editor of the Russia in Global Affairs magazine. “What’s the point of going?”
The Kremlin blamed scheduling conflicts for Putin’s absence without specifying, prompting the Russian leader to skip one of the most high-profile global summits.
– ‘Nothing to say’ –
The Kremlin said Putin will not even speak via video link at the summit.
In comparison, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who will attend the gathering virtually, is expected to push for a stronger response to the Russian attack.
The Russian delegation will be headed by Moscow’s top diplomat Sergey Lavrov.
The combative foreign minister walked out of a G20 meeting in Bali in July after condemning Russia’s offensive in Ukraine, and he can expect another icy reception.
Political scientist Konstantin Kalachev said Putin’s refusal to travel to Bali reflected “a sense of an impasse” regarding Ukraine.
“He has nothing to say,” Kalachev said. “He has no proposal on Ukraine that could please both sides.”
Despite the mobilization of hundreds of thousands of reservists in September, Russian forces in Ukraine have suffered setback after setback.
In September, the Russian army was forced to withdraw from the north-eastern Kharkiv region.
On Friday, Russia announced that it would withdraw its troops from the strategic southern port city of Kherson in a renewed humiliation of the Kremlin. The peace talks have been put on hold.
– ‘Anti-Western Coalition’ –
Shunned by most Western leaders, Putin is seeking to deepen ties with countries that have traditionally had good relations with Moscow or that also rail against US dominance in global affairs.
“From Putin’s point of view, his refusal to go to the G20 summit will not prevent Russia from developing relations with neutral states,” said Tatiana Stanovaya, the founder of R.Politik, a political analysis company.
“Putin believes that Russia’s anti-American line has a lot of support.”
The Kremlin insists that Russia is far from isolated, and Stanovaya pointed out that Putin has been looking for allies in Africa, Asia and the Middle East.
“He’s trying to build an anti-Western coalition,” she said.
Many political observers are skeptical that the Kremlin boss will be successful. After Putin sent troops to Ukraine on February 24, no major nation has rallied behind Russia, including China.
Russia’s attack on Ukraine also spooked Moscow’s neighbors in Central Asia, prompting countries like Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan to look for alliances elsewhere.
Kalachev said Russia’s confrontation with the West has pushed it to the fringes of world politics and decision-making on pressing issues like climate change.
“It’s not a pariah country like North Korea,” he said, “but Russia is no longer part of the world agenda that has nothing to do with the WWIII issue.”
