Joe Biden’s Democrats appear to have escaped a feared brawl in Tuesday’s midterm elections, but it remains to be seen whether that will revive the US president’s flagging fortunes into 2024 — or beyond.
The 79-year-old, who described the race as a clash between defenders of democracy and Donald Trump’s “extremist” camp, spent election night on back-to-back calls with Democrats savoring their victories in the Senate, House of Representatives and gubernatorial races across the country.
“Just got off the phone with some of tonight’s winners — including some people I’ve seen on the streets this year,” Biden tweeted when the results came in — alongside a picture of himself in a turtleneck and baseball cap showing the seems to be happy Take at least part of the credit.
According to former press secretary Jen Psaki, White House staffers were “giddy and gleeful” when the results came in.
The emerging outcome was far from ideal for the Democrats, who will lose the House of Representatives, which Biden has admitted will make his life that much “more difficult” – likely shaking parts of his agenda.
But if the predictions hold overnight and Democrats lose the House by a handful of seats while the Senate is still in play, Biden’s camp will have far exceeded expectations.
– choppy water –
The president’s party has traditionally lost seats in midterm elections, and with Biden’s approval ratings stuck in the low 40s and skyrocketing inflation surpassing voters’ concerns, Republicans had high hopes of sweeping both houses of Congress in a “red wave.” .
Such a brawl would have raised difficult questions about whether America’s oldest president, who turns 80 this month, should run again.
Instead, Biden will emerge in much better shape than either of his Democratic predecessors, Barack Obama or Bill Clinton, both of whom took a hit in the midterms.
Even so, Biden will find himself in choppy waters if the House of Representatives topples.
In a country whose divisions run deeper than ever, even a longtime senator and moderate Democrat like Biden will likely struggle to find common ground with a Republican-led chamber.
Large parts of his legislative agenda could be completely stalled.
Another open question is whether a new Republican leadership would deliver on its promise to aggressively hold the president accountable — which even a narrow majority in the House of Representatives empowers them to do.
That could easily lead to endless congressional investigations into Biden, his record, and his family.
One of the loudest voices, far-right Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, has already promised increased scrutiny of Biden’s son, Hunter, whom Republicans accuse of using his father’s ties to do business with Ukraine and China.
– Eyes on 2024 –
With control of the House of Representatives, Republicans could also put significant budgetary pressures on the president — with the potential to cut funding for the federal government.
The fate of the Senate – which grants greater powers – still hangs in the balance.
But beyond that, the big question facing Biden — and his Democrats — is who will wear the party’s colors in the 2024 White House race.
So far, the US President has repeatedly said he is seeking a second term, and any suggestion to the contrary would have immediately undermined his authority.
But there is little appetite in the US public – or in his own party – for a second White House led by an octogenarian commander-in-chief.
Biden leaves Friday for a diplomatic marathon that takes him from the COP27 climate conference in Egypt to Cambodia to an ASEAN summit and on to Indonesia for the G20 meeting.
The veteran Democrat could keep America in the dark about his intentions for 2024 for some time.
But with the president far from US shores, his rival Trump will step forward – promising a big reveal that’s widely expected to be a new run at the White House next Tuesday in Florida.