The assassination of former Prime Minister Imran Khan and his accusation of a conspiracy involving a senior intelligence officer has pushed Pakistan into a “dangerous phase”, analysts say.
Khan escaped an assassination attempt on Thursday with gunshot wounds to his legs as he led supporters on a widely publicized march to the capital to urge snap elections.
He claimed on Friday that Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, Interior Minister Rana Sanaullah and Major General Faisal Nasir – an intelligence officer – planned to have him killed and blame “a religious fanatic”.
“The political situation in Pakistan has entered a dangerous phase,” said academic and political analyst Tauseef Ahmed Khan, who is also a board member of the Human Rights Commission of Pakistan.
“In a country with a history of political chaos, the sounds reverberate.”
Despite being ousted by a no-confidence vote in April, Khan retains mass public support – he won a series of by-elections despite fighting a series of legal cases brought by the current government.
As the pressure mounts, the government’s reliance on the country’s “deep state” — a term often used for the powerful military — for its survival is increasing, Ahmed Khan said.
“It is a dangerous situation – not only for the democratic process but also for the country – especially in terms of economic development,” he said.
“The issues of poverty, hunger and development fade into the background.”
– At the throat of the other –
Khan and Sharif have been at each other’s throats for months, trading accusations of incompetence and corruption in words and tones dripping with contempt.
But such a public denunciation by Khan and the appointment of a senior military officer brought the situation to a new level of crisis.
Khan has not provided any evidence to support his claims, which the government has dismissed as “lies and fabrications”.
Criticism of the military — which has ruled the country for about half of its 75-year history — has always been a red line, but Khan has increasingly spoken out openly against a security institute many say aided his initial rise to power .
On Friday, the military’s press department released a statement calling on the government to take Khan to court for defamation.
Officials from Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party could also be targeted.
High-ranking party members have been charged with “incitement” and other offenses since Khan’s ouster, as have journalists sympathetic to the former prime minister.
“It seems that some kind of operation against PTI could be launched now,” said analyst Ahmed Khan, adding that there is a risk that the party could fragment.
Since Khan’s large rallies are intended to prove to both his political opposition and the military that he has public support, the results could be “chaos, despair and disappointment,” he added.
In such a charged atmosphere, multiple allegations and denials from both sides are unlikely to ever be properly investigated, said Karachi-based political scientist Kaiser Bengali.
That, he added, leaves room for conspiracy theories to abound.
“The state has lost its legitimacy…police, justice and order – even the judiciary,” he said.
– What went wrong –
Bengali said the military are now “sitting wondering what went wrong and what they can do”.
The government said the assassination of Khan was “a very clear case of religious extremism,” blaming a lone gunman who came from a poor village.
Pakistan has long struggled with Islamist militancy, with right-wing religious groups having a major impact on the populace in the Muslim-majority country.
Khan and his PTI have been accused in the past of inciting religious sentiment to appeal to a broader base of support.
“Religious extremism is a weapon that the PTI uses — as does the army and the state,” Bengali said. “So we are heading towards an immensely dangerous situation.”
Behind the political crisis, however, lies a more ubiquitous one: the economy.
“The state is bankrupt, all the resources it has are being used for debt servicing and defense and government salaries,” Bengali said.
“Whatever crumbs are available, politicians quarrel about that…that’s why the fight has become so petty.”
