The world must set aside an area larger than the United States to plant trees and take other action to meet climate pledges, according to a study released Tuesday that warns of “unrealistic” carbon reduction plans.
Nearly 200 nations are set to begin high-level UN climate talks in Egypt from November 6 as mounting damage from floods, heat waves and droughts are felt around the world.
Recent UN assessments conclude that current policies and plans are far from sufficient to limit global warming and avoid catastrophic climate impacts.
They could also be unattainable, new research showed Tuesday about the planned use of land-based programs like planting trees to offset fossil fuel pollution.
An assessment of plans from 166 countries and the European Union, released by the University of Melbourne, estimates the total area involved is nearly 1.2 billion hectares (2.9 billion acres) – larger than the United States, or four times as big as India.
“Meeting all land-based carbon removal pledges is unrealistic as it would require a landmass half the size of current global farmland, putting potential pressures on ecosystems, food security and the rights of indigenous peoples “, says the report.
The research looked at countries’ goals, particularly longer-term commitments, and where the area needed was not explicitly stated, they were calculated using information on the types of activities as well as data on carbon removal from UN climate experts.
They found that over 550 hectares were earmarked for restoring degraded land and protecting primary forests, but an estimated 630 million hectares were earmarked for carbon capture programs such as tree planting.
“Land-based carbon removal needs to be viewed alongside significant reductions in fossil fuel emissions, not as a substitute,” said Anne Larson of the Center for International Forestry Research and World Agroforestry, who was a co-author of the report.
Larson said governments may see tree planting as “easy compared to other options” but cautioned that these projects can create their own problems.
In the absence of a long-term management plan or if the species are not native, the trees can simply wither.
Tree plantations imposed on communities are at risk of being “neglected, burned, cut down,” she said.
