Chancellor Olaf Scholz embarks on a high-stakes trip to China this week, walking a tightrope between bolstering a vital economic relationship and growing concerns about over-reliance on authoritarian Beijing.
Scholz, accompanied by a delegation of business leaders, will be the first European Union leader since 2019 to visit the world’s second largest economy.
During Friday’s one-day trip, he will hold talks with President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Keqiang.
But the visit has sparked controversy as Berlin is reeling from an over-reliance on Russian energy imports, which it revealed when Moscow cut supplies after invading Ukraine.
This crisis has raised serious concerns about whether German industry’s heavy reliance on China could make it vulnerable again.
Rising tensions between the West and Beijing over issues ranging from Taiwan to human rights in Xinjiang have contributed to a deteriorating geopolitical climate, with even senior figures in Scholz’s coalition raising concerns.
Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said she feared mistakes made in relations with Russia could be repeated towards China.
“We have to prevent that,” said Baerbock – a member of the Greens in Scholz’s troubled three-party coalition – at the ARD weekend.
“I think it’s extremely important that we never again make ourselves so dependent on a country that doesn’t share our values.”
– ‘minimize risks’ –
The sensitivity was highlighted when a row erupted last month over whether Chinese shipping giant Cosco should acquire a stake in a Hamburg port terminal.
Ultimately, Scholz resisted calls from six ministries to oppose the sale over safety concerns, instead allowing the company to acquire a reduced stake.
Some officials will see strengthening the economic partnership with China as crucial at a time when Germany, reeling from the energy crisis, is heading into recession.
Scholz spokesman Steffen Hebestreit emphasized in the run-up to the trip that the Chancellor was not in favor of “decoupling” from China – but wanted to “diversify and minimize risks”.
For the time being, the German and Chinese economies will remain closely intertwined.
China is a key market for German goods, particularly auto giants Volkswagen, BMW and Mercedes-Benz, and many jobs in Europe’s leading economy depend directly on the ties.
The deteriorating climate has rattled the nerves of German firms investing in China. BASF chemical giant boss Martin Brudermüller, who will accompany Scholz, called for an end to “China bashing” last week.
Still, the timing of the trip raised eyebrows so soon after Xi Jinping secured a historic third term as China’s leader.
“The timing is extremely unfortunate,” said Heribert Dieter of the German Society for International Politics and Security Policy of the AFP news agency.
Xi “has just been confirmed in office for another five years, and of course Chinese politicians see the German chancellor’s visit as a confirmation of their policies,” he added.
– ‘go your own way’ –
Hebestreit stressed that the visit will “cover the full spectrum of our relations with China,” including tensions in East Asia and human rights.
He said the war in Ukraine will be on the agenda. While Germany strongly condemned Russia’s invasion, China has consistently avoided criticizing Moscow, instead blaming the United States and NATO for the conflict.
He also said that Scholz is in close contact with international partners in Europe and the United States because of the visit.
But some may see it as further evidence that Germany is going it alone to protect its own interests.
Berlin has already caused trouble among other EU members by launching a 200 billion euro ($198 billion) fund to protect consumers and businesses from rising energy prices, instead of cooperating with the rest of the bloc.
“Western allies – of course in Paris, but above all in Washington – take a very critical view of this trip,” said Dieter.
“Germany goes its own way.”