Brazil await Bolsonaro’s next move while Lula faces a tough to-do list

Brazil await Bolsonaro’s next move while Lula faces a tough to-do list

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A tense Brazil awaited Jair Bolsonaro’s next move on Monday, as the far-right incumbent remained silent after losing a razor-thin runoff in the presidential election to veteran leftist Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva – who now faces a tough to-do list .

The country now has two long months before taking office on January 1 after Bolsonaro’s defeat by Lula by a score of 51 percent to 49 percent – the closest race since Brazil returned to democracy from its 1964-1985 military dictatorship.

Fresh off a grand victory party that capped a remarkable political comeback, ex-President Lula – now President-elect – faces the less than pleasant task of a chaotic, high-risk transition process.

Bolsonaro’s radio silence after the polarizing Sunday election has left Brazilians on edge after months of the ex-army captain alleging voter fraud and an alleged conspiracy against him.

Lula criticized his nemesis for not acknowledging the result.

“Anywhere else in the world, the defeated President would have called me to acknowledge his defeat. He has not yet called supporters in São Paulo.

The lights went out at the presidential residence in Brasilia on Sunday night without the leader, who is often compared to former US President Donald Trump, having a say.

“Lula has to watch out… for any challenge that Bolsonaro and his allies make to delegitimize his victory and mobilize his supporters like Trump in the United States,” said University of Brasilia political scientist Paulo Calmon.

– Narrow Victory –

But with some key Bolsonaro allies – including Congress Speaker Arthur Lira – acknowledging the incumbent’s defeat, the president didn’t look like he had strong support in the halls of power to challenge the outcome.

Lula said he would work to heal a nation wounded by a bitter military campaign.

“We need to engage with many angry people… This country needs peace and unity at the end of a grueling campaign.

Easier said than done, say political analysts.

“It was a very narrow victory… (which) left half the population unhappy. Lula will need to show a lot of political skill to pacify the country,” said political scientist Leandro Consentino of Insper University in Sao Paulo.

“The worst thing that could have happened on Sunday was that the Brazilians went to sleep without the president saying anything. It raises doubts as to whether he will accept the result,” he told AFP.

– “Immense” Challenge –

The victory was an impressive reversal for Lula, who resigned in 2010 as the most popular president in Brazilian history after serving 18 months in jail on corruption charges that have since been overturned.

But he is hated by many Brazilians because of the economic crisis and massive corruption scandal that marked the end of 13 years in power of his Labor Party, which ended when the handpicked successor, Dilma Rousseff, was ousted in 2016.

Now Lula is returning to office — an unprecedented third term at age 77 — and faces a political and economic landscape that looks far more hostile than it did in the 2000s.

Bolsonaro’s far-right allies scored big victories in the legislative and gubernatorial elections in the first round on Oct. 2 and will be the strongest force in Congress.

And the global economy is nothing like the commodities “super cycle” that enabled Lula to lead Latin America’s largest economy through a tipping point boom.

Lula has confirmed his tough to-do list.

“The challenge is immense,” he said, citing a hunger crisis, a weak economy, bitter political divisions and rampant destruction of the Amazon rainforest.

Lula will face “strong” resistance and possible street protests, said political scientist Adriano Laureno of the Prospectiva consultancy.

“He will take office amid a possible global recession” and make difficult economic decisions at home, Laureno told AFP.

“It will be very difficult to remain popular,” he said.

– Hope for climate war –

All eyes in western capitals were on the impact of the election on the future of the Amazon and the global climate emergency.

In his nearly four years in power, climate skeptic Bolsonaro has often been the target of criticism from environmentalists for his support of logging and mining companies blamed for rainforest destruction, with Lula’s victory raising hopes for change.

Norway, which stopped subsidies to Brazil to protect the Amazon in 2019, will resume cooperation with Brasilia after Lula’s victory, the Scandinavian country’s environment minister told AFP on Monday.

“We note that during the campaign (Lula) emphasized the preservation of the Amazon rainforest and the protection of the indigenous peoples of the Amazon,” Espen Barth Eide said, adding that the Amazon Rainforest Conservation Fund currently has over 5 billion Norwegian kroner (approx $482) features million).

Though Lula’s own environmental record is hardly flawless, activists say that under Bolsonaro, deforestation in the Amazon has skyrocketed.

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