Charisma and campaign strategy won’t be the only things when Brazil’s far-right President Jair Bolsonaro and his left-wing challenger Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva clash in a polarizing runoff on Sunday.

Here are three key factors analysts say will drive earnings.

Millions of Brazilians hate Bolsonaro, Lula or both – and this no vote will play a crucial role, analysts say.

Four years ago, Bolsonaro ran as an outsider, caused great outrage with an economic crisis and massive corruption scandals under the Workers’ Party (PT), which ruled Brazil for 13 years – first under Lula (2003-2010), then under Dilma Rousseff (2011-2016 ), who was eventually charged.

Now that Brazil is deeply divided over Bolsonaro’s uncompromising conservatism, Covid-19 denial and scathing style, the former army captain has many haters of his own.

“Brazilian politics has two negationist forces: ‘anti-PTism’ and ‘anti-Bolsonarianism’. And that will decide the election,” says Mayra Goulart, a political scientist at the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro.

Some 32 million Brazilians didn’t vote in the first-round election on Oct. 2 — more than five times the six million votes that separated Lula (48 percent) from Bolsonaro (43 percent).

In the run-off election, “voter turnout will be crucial,” says political scientist Oliver Stuenkel of the Getulio Vargas Foundation.

Poor voters, a group heavily leaning towards Lula, are particularly vulnerable to staying at home, especially when they don’t have transportation.

In theory, voting is compulsory in Brazil. But the fine for non-compliance — 3.5 reais, or just over 50 US cents — costs less than the round-trip bus ride.

“The more voters stay at home, the worse it gets for Lula,” says Stuenkel.

Latin America’s largest economy is slowly crawling out of its pandemic hole.

Unemployment fell to 8.7 percent last quarter from a pandemic high of 14.5 percent, and economic growth is expected to be 2.8 percent this year.

But 9.5 million workers are out of work, 33 million are starving, and prices remain painfully high for most – even though inflation is beginning to ease.

“The economy, high inflation… unemployment exacerbated by the pandemic have all contributed to the dismay of many families,” says sociologist Paulo Baia, according to Bolsonaro.

Lula, known for his economic boom and social programs that helped lift 30 million people out of poverty, draws heavily on that legacy.

Meanwhile, Bolsonaro is relying on bloated social benefits for the poor, gas price cuts and tentative signs of better times to win voters over.

Ultimately, however, the economy should not be the decisive issue.

Stuenkel says it could be eclipsed by Brazil’s culture wars and Bolsonaro’s pet themes like “family, Christianity and tradition.”

“If (Lula) wins, it will show that the primary concern of voters is the economy,” he says.

“If Bolsonaro wins, it will show that social conservatism is seen as the most important issue.”