There are growing signs that the crucial partnership between Germany and France is faltering, experts say, while Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and rising energy costs weigh heavily on the EU.
A joint cabinet meeting has been postponed to January, while a parliamentary gathering of French, German and Polish MPs over the weekend was canceled amid disagreements over energy, foreign policy, arms procurement and more.
There have always been “difficult moments” in relations, said France’s former ambassador to China, Great Britain and Russia, Sylvie Bermann.
“But we are clearly in a time of crisis and the Franco-German relationship seems more tense than ever,” she said.
It didn’t help that the Ukraine war broke out when Chancellor Olaf Scholz had barely taken office. Insiders said French President Emmanuel Macron’s relationship with him is nowhere near as cordial as it was with former German Chancellor Angela Merkel, with whom he texted on a daily basis.
Scholz and Macron will meet on Wednesday after last week’s meeting of European leaders in Paris.
“There is a necessary learning process” as Germany’s three-party coalition government takes hold, said Alexandre Robinet-Borgomano, a German policy expert at the French think tank Institut Montaigne.
“In the future, the federal government must make compromises with more dialogue, more solidarity with its European partners,” he added.
– energy dust –
The Berlin-Paris axis was the bedrock of the EU compromise for decades, and the bloc’s two largest and richest countries have been even more critical since Britain left.
Europe’s economic heavyweight Germany has sowed discord with plans for a €200 billion national energy subsidy instead of an EU-wide price cap agreement.
“I don’t think it’s good for Germany or Europe if it’s isolated,” Macron said last week of the plans, which smaller countries fear could drive up prices.
Ironically, the complaints are coming from France and elsewhere as Germany appears to be giving in to long-standing demands, analyst Robinet-Borgomano said.
France has spent 10 years “firstly chiding (Germany) for not spending enough on defense because it has no strategic or geopolitical vision, and secondly chiding it for being stuck in austerity and no spent money,” he emphasized.
That’s “exactly what we’re lamenting today,” added Robinet-Borgomano.
Berlin is “investing more to boost growth and domestic demand, taking leadership and building European defenses,” with massive new spending following Russia’s attack on Ukraine.
Energy subsidies were swept under the rug at last week’s EU summit with agreement on a “roadmap” for energy prices.
France has also rejected Germany’s requests to build a new overland gas pipeline – known as MidCat – from import terminals in Spain and Portugal to European grids.
Instead, Macron announced an underwater pipeline from Barcelona to Marseille last week, with no timeline for completion or details on how it will be financed.
– War means business –
Meanwhile, on defense – an area where France and Germany have tried to demonstrate unity – differences have also been pushed to the surface.
Paris has stayed out of a German-led plan for an anti-missile shield that stretches across much of Europe and has so far brought 14 countries, including the UK, Belgium and the Netherlands, on board.
A Macron adviser said France feared a “restart of the arms race in Europe” and would stick to its own air defense systems.
Analyst Robinet-Borgomano suggested Paris was actually upset that the shield would use US-Israel-made gear rather than a Franco-Italian alternative.
France “should have pushed for interoperability between systems to ensure European sovereignty, we can see that it’s about competing for leadership in European defense,” he said.
An even more sensitive issue is a plan to develop a next-generation Franco-German-Spanish fighter jet known as the Future Combat Air System (FCAS).
Contracts for the next phase of development of the aircraft, which is set to replace existing fleets of French Rafales and German and Spanish Eurofighters by 2040, have not yet been signed.
“There is a political agreement, but it is blocked at the company level,” said a senior French official.
French manufacturer Dassault “fears losing its market position” if it were forced to work with competitor Airbus, they added.