Russia’s deadly airstrikes on Ukrainian cities this week have sparked calls for more military aid, but analysts warn that no air defense system can fully defend Ukrainian territory.
Kyiv says a spate of Russian strikes across the country on Monday killed at least 19 people, injured more than 100 and damaged infrastructure.
Rockets, including cruise missiles, rained down on the country’s cities, including in rare attacks on the capital, Kyiv, far from the front lines to the east and south.
Ukraine also accused Russia of using Iranian-made drones fired from neighboring Belarus and Russia-annexed Crimea.
While Kyiv says its army managed to shoot down more than half of them, Prime Minister Denys Shmygal called for “more modern weapons to protect the skies and protect civilians”.
“Calls for Western air defenses around Ukraine’s population centers will become much louder after Monday’s strikes,” said Tyler Rogoway, editor of The War Zone website.
“Cruise missiles, however, are a challenge – even for modern Western air defense systems,” he added in a Twitter thread, as they are not “an impenetrable shield”.
Francois Heisbourg of the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) warned that tough decisions would have to be made about where defensive arms could best be concentrated.
“What infrastructure and population centers should be defended, and how efficiently? Defending everything would mean defending nothing.”
Even in Israel, a country 27 times smaller than Ukraine, the Iron Dome air defense system is not 100 percent effective.
– ‘No unit system’ –
Nicholas Fiorenza of UK intelligence analysis firm Janes said full coverage was unlikely.
“Don’t think there is a country that is capable of stopping (every) single possible missile or UAV (unmanned aerial vehicle) or plane from getting through,” he told AFP.
Ukraine’s Defense Ministry said Monday that Russia fired 83 missiles at Ukraine, of which its air defenses shot down 52, including 43 cruise missiles.
The Russians appear to have fired short-range Iskander and Tochka-U missiles, as well as Kalibr cruise missiles, said Gustav Gressel of the European Council on Foreign Relations.
The Ukrainians have S-300 air defense systems and others, some of which are running out of ammunition. To repel the drone attacks, it also has man-portable air defense systems (MANPADS).
“However, defending large cities with MANPADS would require many launchers due to their short range,” Gressel said.
More generally, “There is no (unique) weapon system to defend (Ukraine) as targets vary quite a bit in speed, course, altitude and numbers,” he added.
“Air defense must be layered and different weapon systems must support each other.”
This was the case around Kyiv in March and April, he said.
“They intercepted several Tochka-Us and Kalibr missiles, although not all in one attack, of course.”
– ‘No impact before spring’ –
Following Monday’s attacks, the United States said it was preparing to deliver “advanced medium- and long-range air defense capabilities” to Ukraine.
Germany promised delivery “in the coming days”of the first Iris-T missile shield system reportedly capable of protecting a large city.
Its range is 20 kilometers (12 miles) high and 40 kilometers (25 miles) wide.
Berlin’s Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht said the recent Russian attacks had “underscored the importance of the rapid delivery of air defense systems to Ukraine”.
But the contract for the Iris-T systems includes 12 weeks of training for Ukrainians to use them, Fiorenza warned.
“I don’t see them having an effect until next spring,” he said.
Western arms manufacturers are also being pressured to produce air defense weapons, which have long been shelved as they were deemed less useful in fighting jihadists from Afghanistan to the Sahel.
Wojciech Lorenz, head of the international security program at Poland’s Institute of International Affairs, said air and missile defense systems were “unfortunately in short supply in the West”.
“But we should find what we can send to further boost Ukrainian morale and limit destruction in case Russia decides to attack civilian targets,” he said.
Michael O’Hanlon of the Brookings Institution said anti-aircraft and anti-missile systems are “expensive and not foolproof” but essential.
“And just as Israel’s Iron Dome has shown over the years, they can bring a greater sense of hope to a besieged population, even when their 100 percent effectiveness cannot be assumed,” he added.
