Latvians went to the polls on Saturday in the shadow of neighboring Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, with victory expected for centrist parties, which have vowed to continue supporting Kyiv.
Opinion polls ahead of the parliamentary elections have shown a weakening of populists, conservatives and the social democratic party Harmony, which usually enjoys strong support from Latvia’s large Russian-speaking minority.
Political pundit Marcis Krastins said Prime Minister Krisjanis Karins is “most likely” to win, depending on how many smaller parties backing him break the five percent threshold for entry into parliament.
“Russians invading Ukraine help Karins win voters in Latvia because at such times people tend to gather around the flag,” Krastins said.
Karins’ New Unity Party topped a recent opinion poll with 13.3 percent.
Harmony, which came first in the recent election but didn’t have enough allies to govern the Baltic state, got 5.1 percent.
Ahead of the election, President Egils Levits warned voters not to support politicians in the Russian-speaking community who “were reluctant at the outset of the Russian invasion to say clearly who was the aggressor and who was the victim.”
Referring to the energy crisis and economic difficulties, he warned against populists, saying he was “very skeptical of political parties and figures who promise to get us out of this mess quickly and easily.
“I don’t trust those who offer simple and mostly useless solutions to extraordinarily complex problems,” he said in a statement.
Ruled over the centuries by Crusaders, Swedes, Poles and then Russians, Latvia gained independence in 1918 before falling under Soviet occupation from 1944 to 1990.
Today, the Russian-speaking minority makes up around 30 percent of the 1.8 million inhabitants.
Polling stations open at 04:00 GMT and close at 17:00 GMT.
– Fear of Russian expansionism –
Along with residents of nearby Poland and Baltic neighbors Lithuania and Estonia, many Latvians are concerned about Russia’s expansion plans and feel vulnerable despite being a member of the EU and NATO.
The outgoing government has shown strong support for Ukraine, increased defense spending and worked towards greater energy security.
The Harmonie party, which won 20 percent in the last election in 2018, has since been on a path of gradual decline, partly due to a series of corruption scandals.
Harmony has condemned the Russian invasion but has been less vocal about allegations that Russian forces are committing human rights atrocities.
The Russian-speaking electorate has turned to two new parties – one openly pro-Kremlin and one less staunchly pro-Russia.
Some Russian speakers in Ukraine say that Latvians’ attitudes towards them have deteriorated since the beginning of the war and that their linguistic and cultural identity is being challenged.
“In Latvia, Russian speakers are in a way collateral victims of the war,” said Miroslavs Mitrofanovs, co-chair of Latvia’s Russian Union party.
