French President Emmanuel Macron will get a taste of public opposition to his second-term reform agenda this week during the first nationwide strike called since his re-election in April.

The 44-year-old leader has pledged to push ahead with raising the retirement age after retreating from the hot topic in his first five years in power.

But after losing his parliamentary majority in June, the pro-business centist is facing serious difficulties in passing legislation while runaway inflation weighs on sentiment in the country.

Despite warnings from allies about the risk of failure, Macron has ordered his government to raise the retirement age to 64 or 65 from the current 62, with the changes set to take effect next year.

“I am not anticipating what the government and parliament will do, but I am convinced that it is a necessity,” Macron told BFM news channel last Thursday.

With deficits rising and government debt at historic levels, the former investment banker argues that raising the retirement age and getting more people into jobs are the only ways governments can increase revenue without raising taxes.

On Thursday, France’s far-left CGT union, backed by left-wing political parties, organized a national day of strikes, the prelude to a struggle expected to last for months.

Originally planned as wage increases, the protests are now intended to signal broad opposition to the government’s plans.

“We are against raising the retirement age,” Philippe Martinez, head of the CGT, told LCI last week. “The government’s arguments don’t work.”

Public opinion on pension reform and the strikes is likely to be crucial to Macron’s ability to implement a reform he canceled in 2020 amid protests and Covid-19.

An opinion poll by the Odoxa Group last week found that 55 percent of respondents did not want the reform and 67 percent said they were ready to support protests against it.

However, a separate survey by the Elabe Group gave a more differentiated picture.

It also found that only a minority, 21 percent, wanted the retirement age to be raised, but a total of 56 percent thought the current system was no longer working and 60 percent felt it was financially unsustainable.

“I don’t know anyone who wants to work longer, but I don’t know anyone who thinks they won’t work longer either,” a minister close to Macron told AFP last week on condition of anonymity.

“Maybe I’m wrong, but I’m not sure the turnout will be as big as the unions and the LFI are hoping,” he said, referring to the hard-left political party France Unbowed (LFI), which is the supported strikes.

Second, crucial will be how the government introduces the reform in parliament, where Macron’s allies are some 40 seats short of a majority.

Some advocate putting it in a Social Security budget bill to be voted on in October – a stealthy move critics have denounced as underhanded.

Others believe more time should be spent in consultations with unions and opposition parties, although they have all ruled out any cooperation with the government.

Macron prefers the faster option, a senior MP told AFP on condition of anonymity.

In both scenarios, observers expect the government to resort to a controversial constitutional mechanism called “Article 49.3,” which allows the executive branch to ram legislation without a vote by the National Assembly.

If opposition parties unite against the measure or file a motion of no confidence in the government, they could trigger new elections.

The reform is “bold but dangerous,” an ally told French media last week.

The success of pension reform and separate changes to the unemployment insurance system will help the president revitalize his image as a reformer, experts say.

He has been embroiled in the war crisis in Ukraine since winning a historic second term in April. The setback in June’s general election has reportedly left him disoriented and even depressed.

“We’ve slightly lost the narrative of macronism,” political scientist Bruno Cautres, a researcher at Sciences Po University in Paris, recently told AFP.

The challenge is to provide “direction” for the second term and show “how it builds on the results of the first,” he said.

“The essence of Macronism, which has no long history, is the guide and the program,” added Benjamin Morel of the University of Paris II.

Since being elected France’s youngest president in 2017, Macron has made overhauling social security and workplace regulations part of his political DNA.

“Emmanuel Macron cannot shy away from reform because burying reform is like denying yourself,” Morel said.

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