President Vladimir Putin’s threat to use a nuclear weapon in Ukraine if Russia’s “territorial integrity” is threatened has sparked heated debate in the West over how he would respond.
“Those who are trying to blackmail us with nuclear weapons should know that the tide can also turn in their direction,” Putin said, adding: “This is not a bluff.”
But analysts aren’t convinced the Russian president is ready to be the first to use nuclear weapons since the US bombed Japan in 1945.
AFP spoke to several experts and officials about the possible scenarios that could arise should Russia launch a nuclear attack.
What would a Russian nuclear attack look like?
Analysts say Moscow would likely use one or more “tactical” or nuclear bombs on the battlefield.
These are small weapons ranging in yield from 0.3 kilotons to 100 kilotons, compared to the 1.2 megatons of the largest US strategic warhead or 58 megaton bomb tested by Russia in 1961.
Tactical bombs are designed to have a limited impact on the battlefield compared to strategic nuclear weapons, which are designed to fight and win all-out wars.
But “small” and “limited” are relative: the atomic bomb that the US devastatingly dropped on Hiroshima in 1945 was a mere 15 kilotons.
What would Moscow aim for?
Analysts say that Russia’s goal in using a tactical nuclear bomb in Ukraine would be to scare it into surrender or submission to negotiations and to divide the country’s Western backers.
Mark Cancian, a military expert with the CSIS International Security Program in Washington, said Russia is unlikely to use nuclear weapons on the front lines.
Capturing 20 miles (32 kilometers) of territory could require 20 small nukes – small wins for the huge risks of nuclear weapons introduction and nuclear fallout.
“Using just one isn’t going to be enough,” Cancian said.
Instead, Moscow could send a strong message and avoid significant casualties by detonating a nuclear bomb over water or detonating one high over Ukraine to create an electromagnetic pulse that disables electronic devices.
Or Putin could opt for even more destruction and death: attack a military base in Ukraine or hit an urban center like Kyiv, causing mass casualties and possibly killing the country’s political leadership.
Such scenarios “would likely aim to split the NATO alliance and the global consensus against Putin,” Jon Wolfsthal, a former White House nuclear policy expert, wrote on Substack on Friday.
But “it’s unclear if it would succeed and could just as easily be seen as desperation as determination,” he said.
Should the West respond with nuclear weapons?
The West has remained unclear about how it would respond to a tactical nuclear strike, and the choices are complicated.
The United States and NATO do not want to appear weak in the face of an implied nuclear threat.
But they would also want to avoid the possibility that the war in Ukraine — not a NATO member — could escalate into a much broader, devastating global nuclear war.
Experts say the West has no choice but to respond, and that a response should come from NATO as a group, not from the United States alone.
Any response should “both ensure that Putin’s military situation has not improved as a result of such a blow, and that his political, economic and personal position has suffered as a result,” Wolfsthal said.
The United States has about 100 of its own tactical nuclear weapons deployed in NATO countries and could respond in kind against Russian forces.
That would demonstrate determination and remind Moscow of the danger of what it is doing, said Matthew Kroenig of the Atlantic Council.
However, he said “it could also provoke a Russian nuclear retaliation, increasing the risk of a major nuclear exchange and another humanitarian catastrophe.”
Another risk is that some NATO members may oppose a nuclear response, serving Putin’s goals of weakening the alliance.
Give Ukraine the opportunity to attack Russia?
According to experts, it may be more effective to respond to a Russian nuclear attack in more conventional military or diplomatic ways, and to provide Ukraine with deadlier weapons to attack Russia.
“Russian nuclear use could offer an opportunity to persuade previously reluctant countries like India and possibly even China to participate in escalating sanctions,” Kroenig said.
In addition, the United States could offer Ukraine NATO aircraft, Patriot and THAAD anti-missile batteries, and long-range ATACMS missiles that could be used by Ukrainian forces to penetrate deep into Russia.
“Whatever restrictions we have on the Ukrainian armed forces – and I think we have some restrictions – I think we’re lifting all of those,” Cancian said.
