Rising obesity is expected to cost the global economy 3.3 percent of GDP by 2060, slowing development in low-income countries and making it harder for people to lead healthy lives, according to a new study published Wednesday.
The peer-reviewed paper, published in BMJ Global Health, provides the first country-by-country estimate of the economic impact of obesity, a major cause of other noncommunicable diseases such as cancer, diabetes and heart disease.
It also included projections for the number of people in each country who are overweight or obese — defined as an adult body mass index greater than or equal to 25 and 30, respectively.
“Nearly two in three adults worldwide are now overweight and obese. And we project that by 2060 it will be three out of four adults,” lead author Rachel Nugent told reporters at a briefing on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly.
The conditions currently cost 2.2 percent of global GDP, and the largest increases are expected to come in countries with fewer resources.
China, the United States and India are expected to experience the greatest impact in absolute terms – costing the countries $10 trillion, $2.5 trillion and $850 billion, respectively.
Among the hardest-hit countries relative to the economy are the United Arab Emirates, where obesity would account for 11 percent of GDP, and Trinidad and Tobago at 10.2 percent.
The report analyzed both direct costs, consisting mainly of physician fees, and indirect costs from premature mortality and lost productivity. Previous work had only focused on the former.
“Less visible costs are hampering development,” said Nugent, vice president of noncommunicable diseases at nonprofit research firm RTI International.
“We could evolve and grow faster and improve people’s livelihoods faster if we didn’t experience these lower productivity and early mortality rates.”
– No to stigma –
Population and economic growth are the main drivers of obesity prevalence — as countries increase their incomes, they experience a diet shift toward highly processed foods, she explained.
In rich countries, population aging is also an important factor as older people find it harder to lose weight.
Francesco Branca of the World Health Organization said there are a number of ways to respond to the obesity epidemic and avoid its worst consequences.
“Policies that affect the pricing of food, for example – so the foods that contribute most to obesity, like drinks or foods high in fat and sugar, have to become more expensive,” he said.
Further steps are better labeling – and in addition to preventive measures, better access to advice and drug therapies than treatments.
The report emphasized that the economic costs of overweight and obesity “are not attributable to individual behavior” but rather are a consequence of social and commercial priorities shaping the environment.
Therefore, the responsibility for dealing with the problems lies with those in power.
“We need to recognize that obesity is a complex disease with complex interactions and solutions, and stop blaming these diseases on individuals, end the stigma,” said Simon Barquera, director of the Mexico Research Center for Nutrition and Health.
