The contenders are gearing up for the race to succeed Mexico’s President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, with Mexico City Mayor Claudia Sheinbaum in the running to become the country’s first female head of state.
The presidential election is not until July 2024, and the election campaign has not officially started yet.
But a war of “likes” is already raging on social media between Sheinbaum – a scientist by training and a close ally of Lopez Obrador – and Secretary of State Marcelo Ebrard.
Both hope to become the presidential candidate of the ruling Morena party, which is holding its annual congress this weekend.
“A woman can be an astronaut, a lawyer, a police officer, deputy governor and president of the republic,” Sheinbaum said during a recent visit outside the capital to greet supporters.
Party members will decide Morena’s candidate in 2023, and opinion polls suggest her choice will be the government’s favorite for another six years.
Meanwhile, anyone can ask Ebrard, 62, questions on WhatsApp after posting a contact number, or watch TikTok videos declaring himself a fan of K-pop superstars BTS.
People can also watch Sheinbaum, 60, on TikTok as she plays with a yo-yo or laughingly admits that contrary to her serious adult image, she was the school classroom spokesperson.
An opinion poll released in late August by Enkoll found that 35 percent of respondents would prefer Sheinbaum as Morena’s presidential nominee, versus 26 percent for Ebrard.
And 82 percent said they would vote for a woman president, marking a sea change for a country with a longstanding culture of machismo.
But another poll released by Poligrama on Sept. 6 showed that Sheinbaum and Ebrard were almost level.
– To Lopez Obrador ‘Unwavering’ –
While Lopez Obrador has said he will support whoever wins, he often shows support for Sheinbaum, whom he describes as “incorruptible” and a person of “convictions.”
Ebrard, himself a former mayor of Mexico City, “knows how to govern and is efficient,” but isn’t as close to Lopez Obrador as the president’s “steadfast” confidante Sheinbaum, analyst Pablo Majluf said.
Weak opposition means the big winner of the early campaign is Lopez Obrador – with an approval rating of more than 60 percent – as only his candidates are in the running so far, political analyst Carlos Bravo Regidor said.
Sheinbaum, who is of Lithuanian and Bulgarian descent, “feels very motivated to continue Lopez Obrador’s reform agenda and to be the first female president in Mexico’s history,” a source close to her told AFP.
Ebrard, who has French roots, is trying to raise his profile with domestic travel on top of his international agenda, which includes attending Queen Elizabeth II’s funeral in London on Monday.
In videos shared on social networks, Mexico’s top diplomat can be seen harvesting agaves on a tequila plantation and performing traditional dances in Bolivia.
It’s not Ebrard’s first chance at the presidency.
He was defeated by Lopez Obrador in the internal Morena vote as the party’s candidate for the 2018 presidential election.
Mexico’s constitution limits presidents to six-year terms, and the incumbent has vowed not to run again.
Some analysts believe Lopez Obrador will seek to exert his influence beyond 2024 to preserve his reform agenda.
He will be better positioned to wield power from the sidelines “if followed by a weak president or a president who needs support,” said Bravo Regidor.
