China has increased its spending on coal amid extreme weather, domestic energy shortages and rising global fuel prices – raising concerns that Beijing’s policies could hamper the fight against climate change.

The country is the world’s largest emitter of greenhouse gases that drive global warming, and President Xi Jinping has pledged to reduce coal use from 2026 as part of a broad set of climate pledges.

Beijing has committed to achieving its carbon emissions by 2030 and achieving carbon neutrality by 2060.

Total carbon emissions in China have fallen for four consecutive quarters due to an economic slowdown, research by climate monitor Carbon Brief showed in early September.

But at the same time, slowing growth has prompted authorities to rely on chimney industries to boost the economy.

The push to bolster coal power – which still accounts for most of China’s energy supply – has alarmed analysts, who warn it will complicate an eventual transition to a renewable-dominated energy mix.

Frightened by an energy shortage last fall, Chinese authorities in the spring ordered coal producers to add 300 million tons of mining capacity this year — the equivalent of an extra month of coal production for the country.

According to Greenpeace, regulators approved the equivalent of half of the total coal-fired capacity approved in 2021 in the first quarter of 2022 alone.

Authorities have also burned and mined more coal in recent weeks to meet increased air-conditioning needs and compensate for shrunken hydroelectric dams during China’s hottest summer on record.

Premier Li Keqiang in June called for “release as much advanced coal capacity as possible and implement long-term coal supply.”

The independent Climate Action Tracker warns that even Beijing’s “most binding” climate targets would reach global warming of three to four degrees Celsius before the end of the century – well above the Paris Agreement target of limiting global warming to 1, 5c

To meet that goal, China would need to “reduce emissions as early as possible and well before 2030” — as well as “cut coal and other fossil fuel use much faster than currently planned.”

Beijing’s unwillingness to move away from coal stems in part from inefficiencies in its power grid that prevent excess energy from being transported across regions.

Coal and gas provide local officials with a ready-to-go source of energy and, in practice, are “the only way local officials can avoid power shortages,” energy researcher Lauri Myllyvirta wrote in a Carbon Brief report.

China has made real progress in building renewable energy capacity.

Current solar capacity in the country accounts for almost half of the world’s total, according to the San Francisco-based non-governmental organization Global Energy Monitor (GEM).

But unlike wind or sunlight, coal and gas stocks can be held for long periods and deployed as needed, giving local authorities a sense of security.

However, building more coal plants means less focus on fixing grid issues, Myllyvirta told AFP in a comment, warning plant owners to “slow down the transition as they will have an interest in using their brand new plants”.

At the same time, the central government “wants to avoid widespread power outages that we experienced in the northeastern provinces last winter in this politically crucial year for Xi,” Byford Tsang, senior policy adviser at climate think tank E3G, told AFP.

President Xi is expected to win an unprecedented third term in power at a major Communist Party gathering next month.

Tsang said skyrocketing international energy prices caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine also prompted Beijing to prop up domestic coal production, pointing to a 17.5 percent drop in coal imports in the first half of this year compared to the previous year.

But expanding coal capacity as a quick fix contradicts “immediate annual cuts in coal consumption that the UN and leading research organizations have been calling for,” GEM analysts said.

GEM said all of China’s proposed new mines combined could emit up to six million tons of the greenhouse gas methane a year once operational. According to World Bank data, this roughly corresponds to Austria’s annual methane emissions.

“The more coal China builds now, the more difficult it will be to finance and implement renewable energy projects later,” Wu Jinghan, climate and energy project manager at Greenpeace East Asia, told AFP.

“The longer we wait for the transition, the steeper the transition path will be,” Wu said. “That means more disruption and higher risk, financially and environmentally.”