Ukraine’s finance minister recently sent send a distress signal Go west for emergency funding.Institute of International Finance stab wound Estimate how bad things are.

Its economists stressed that there is clearly “extraordinary uncertainty” and that the brutal war continues, but estimates that Ukraine’s gross domestic product will shrink by at least 35% this year, even assuming that active fighting mostly stays in the country’s borders. east.

Government revenue has apparently been cut. Ukraine’s Finance Minister Sergii Marchenko told the Financial Times that the budget deficit was $2.7 billion in March and is expected to widen to $5 billion to $7 billion a month in April and May. The IIF thinks it could get worse (we highlight below):

We expect government revenue to fall by about 50% due to a severe drop in economic activity and additional spending on war-related tax cuts and military operations, Create a fiscal gap of $3-10 billion per month. Consequently, the $6 billion promised so far by the international community is sure to fall through. . . Even under the most optimistic assumption of a $3 billion monthly financing gap, the current commitments of external funding will only last until the end of April.

In other words, get your checkbook out.