The World Trade Organization has cut its Growth in trade in goods It is forecast to fall by about a third to 3 percent this year, warning that a drop in merchandise exports caused by the war in Ukraine could lead to mass starvation in developing countries.

The Geneva-based agency lowered its forecast for growth in merchandise trade volumes from 4.7 percent, but said a protracted conflict and an embargo on Russian energy supplies could cut it to 0.5 percent.

The WTO also cut its 2022 GDP growth forecast to 2.8% from 4.1%, rising to 3.2% in 2023. It also warned that lockdowns imposed by Chinese cities to prevent the spread of the coronavirus have once again disrupted seaborne trade.

Russia and Ukraine are major exporters of food and fertilizers and their conflict could lead to widespread hunger, WTO director-general says Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala Because she warned against restricting exports or hoarding food.

“Smaller supplies and food prices rise Means the world’s poor may be forced to give up. This must not be allowed to happen. Now is not the time to turn inward,” she said. About 35 African countries import food from Ukraine, Russia or both and 22 import fertilizers. Wheat prices could rise in some sub-Saharan African states without intervention up to 85%, WTO says.

Okonjo-Iweala called for humanitarian corridors to allow food to leave Ukraine by truck or ship and allow farmers to work. “80% of Ukraine’s wheat is harvested in July. That’s the winter crop, and we hope there will be some kind of humanitarian cover so that the harvest can be harvested and they can plant the next crop in September. The ability to harvest the winter crop will be very important.”

She also reiterated her call for countries with food stocks to sell them internationally to lower prices.

Of this, Russia and Ukraine supplied about 25% of wheat, 15% of barley and 45% of sunflower product exports in 2019 for export Animal foodaccording to the WTO.

The WTO estimates trade volumes will grow by 3.4% in 2023, but warns the figures are “more uncertain than usual”.

Global trade contracted by 5% in 2020 but rebounded by about tripling in 2021 as consumers turned to buying more goods as spending on services was curbed by Covid-19 restrictions. Trade was expected to grow at a strong pace this year, supported by savings accumulated by households in many countries before the war in Ukraine.

However, Inflation soarswhich squeezed real incomes for households, and further disruptions to supply chains have radically changed the outlook.

The WTO forecasts that exports from South America will contract this year, while export growth in Asia is expected to slow to 2% from 14% in 2021. Export growth in Europe is expected to more than halve compared with last year, while North American and Middle Eastern oil exporters will see above-average growth.

The CIS region, which includes Russia, is expected to see sharp declines in imports and GDP this year, but exports should rise by 4.9% as other countries continue to rely on the country for energy.

The WTO forecast forecasts the global economic outlook released by the International Monetary Fund later this month.

Separate data released this month by the Kiel Institute for World Economics, which tracks shipping data from 500 ports in real time to create a global trade index, revealed the war’s negative impact on trade.The company reports that the value Global trade fell 2.8% Russia and the European Union contracted the most between February and March.