Tonight, I’ll be posting two posts titled “Speculation.” Each will provide some information that I hope is accurate, will make some additional observations, and then hopefully readers will provide better information and ideas, and correct any mistakes your humble blogger has made. This post about China’s whereabouts after the apparent chaos of the Shanghai lockdown is the more speculative of the two.

From what I can read about the tea leaves, China has no intention of abandoning its zero outbreak policy. Since the containment and lockdown of the Covid-19 outbreak is the responsibility of the city and local governments, the slow implementation of the lockdown has led to embarrassment and potential danger, and to make matters worse, the citizens of Shanghai have suffered unnecessary suffering for failing to organise adequate food supplies and emergencies. Painful medical care for the quarantined is a colossal administrative failure. But this is Shanghai’s failure. This raises an interesting question of how the Xi regime will respond.

Shanghai is so big and connected to the West, it’s hard to imagine what’s going on won’t get out. For example, last week via -email:

The wife keeps in touch with many of her old classmates in Shanghai.

This obviously did not go well in Shanghai. Many of her friends have reported starvation and death of various elderly family members due to medical neglect at home. If you’re going into lockdown, you should be providing food and care, which is clearly not being done at all. She showed me dozens of videos of random people crashing down the street. Unlike last year, the PLA has nowhere to catch them. Anxiety grows exponentially every hour.

It doesn’t help that leaders in Shanghai are photographed living in Beijing and elsewhere. My wife told me that Xi has long hated these leaders. This is likely to be used for their execution.

Yesterday, in the link, Lambert posted several tweets about Shanghaiincluding some by Eric Feigl-Ding, including starving Shanghai citizens arguing with police, who admit they don’t have good answers, especially where to buy them even if they’re let go to food.

This part, further in Lambert’s tweetstorm, seems accurate:

Shanghainese don’t starve at home – and those in power know that. The only reason they don’t have more people on the streets is because people are highly educated, have invested well in the current system, and realize that doing so will make things worse.

— Naomi Wu, Mechanical Enchantress (@RealSexyCyborg) April 9, 2022

So in the next few weeks, without significant progress, we face the potential for civil unrest due to scarcity – either due to lockdowns or a shortage of workers able to deliver supplies due to illness.

— Naomi Wu, Mechanical Enchantress (@RealSexyCyborg) April 9, 2022

If you vaguely recall the speed of Shanghai’s official response when coronavirus cases rose, it was the classic neoliberal “because of business” line, with too many ports in Shanghai, too many activities reliant on it for a hard blockade. The central government initially seemed to be bullshitting, allowing “dynamic zero coronavirus” and some local experiments.

It also seems reasonable to speculate that one of the reasons for such poor food distributions by Shanghai officials was that they were convinced they were too big to be locked down and were not prepared. One obstacle, of course, is that almost all rice or other starchy foods Chinese eat is fresh. But hunger makes things like MRE and pulled bread more appealing.

The Shanghai experiment failed, Beijing made it clear that the Western “let it go” approach was a bad idea, and China was sticking to a significantly tightened “dynamic zero Covid-19” approach. Global Times, an English-language institution, has more editorials (official editorials and articles “straight official views”) than Xinhua. E.g:

April 7 GT Voice: Western slander won’t dent Shanghai’s global appeal

April 9 Coexistence with virus is a helpless choice for the West; China has a better choice: Hong Kong professional

April 10′Omicron is just the flu’ a misconception; some Westerners try to deceive the Chinese public

April 11 ‘Dynamic zero-coronavirus policy’ is the only way out of current complex situation: Global Times editorial

The previous article gave a good description of the current position of China. pivotal parts:

Experts say the Omicron strain could be 10 times more difficult to control than the Delta. This means that more efforts must be made to preserve life and health. Previously, in response to the spread of the Omicron epidemic, Guangdong Province in South China, Shandong Province in East China, Hebei Province in North China, Jilin and other regions have adopted strict prevention and control measures such as quarantine, management, city closure, and screening. , which led to the development of the situation towards a positive trend. Practice has repeatedly proved that the key to winning this battle against the epidemic is to adhere to the overall dynamic of zero epidemic without hesitation, and to unswervingly implement the guidance on responding to the menacing virus epidemic.

Pause for a second. Note that Shanghai is notably absent from this list. continue:

It is worth noting that at a critical juncture when China’s epidemic prevention and control is facing difficulties, some specious voices have come out. They argue that “Omicron is a pandemic” and that countries like the US and UK are “successfully coexisting with the virus”. In public opinion, they are trying their best to create a “prosperous scene” in which Western countries are completely free from the interference of the epidemic, and even regard it as a victory for Western “herd immunity”. But these arguments are morally and scientifically baseless.

Due to Omicron’s strong infectivity, fast transmission and low toxicity, some arguments such as “Omicron is just a big flu” have been widely circulated. But overseas data shows that Omicron can produce a higher mortality rate than Delta during the epidemic. WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said recently that death rates in some countries are now at their highest levels since the beginning of the pandemic. China’s basic national conditions are that there are 267 million people aged 60 and above, and more than 250 million children. That number adds up to more than 500 million. Such a large group of elderly and children determines that we must not “lie down” in any form, but must adhere to the dynamic zero strategy, actively fight the epidemic, and strictly control the epidemic. Only in this way can a large-scale rebound be fundamentally avoided.

In fact, “coexisting with the virus” in countries such as the United Kingdom and the United States is tantamount to passive “lying flat” in epidemic prevention and control. The so-called herd immunity is essentially to drive out a large number of vulnerable groups with low immunity. This is brutal social Darwinism…

Practice has proved that the dynamic zero epidemic policy is the best choice for China to fight the epidemic. The more serious the epidemic, the more comprehensive and accurate we must adhere to the dynamic zero epidemic policy. It is worth emphasizing that some places are adding complexity to people’s normal life precisely because they have not implemented dynamic zero-coronavirus policies, causing a series of problems.

Well, it does not sound like China is changing its stance despite the Shanghai fiasco. It really does not accuse Shanghai officials of being captured by the West and reclaiming their benefits rather than their lives. But perhaps such accusations are being made privately, even in certain corners of Chinese social media.

Oddly, the Global Times did not mention the risk of disease, as the social Darwinian approach backfired. Covid may be cleaning out the weak, but is it also hurting the once-strong. If anything, the health of the community as a whole has not risen, and may be falling.

Naomi Wu contributed an update…

So Shanghai is locked down and the cases are still increasing.
1. Everyone wears a surgical mask – local governments can distribute KN95s, they won’t.
Although COVID was first declared airborne in China, and our scientists *know* it is airborne, the average Chinese still thinks it is droplets. https://t.co/JvSK9ZjR4O

— Naomi Wu, Mechanical Enchantress (@RealSexyCyborg) April 11, 2022

She also mentioned why the coronavirus is spreading faster in China than in some other places:

2. China’s pipeline has no traps – which makes fecal aerosol transmission a problem. Range hoods without roof fans are another issue – here’s a big breakdown of the indoor propagation route:https://t.co/iLidcI7WWD

— Naomi Wu, Mechanical Enchantress (@RealSexyCyborg) April 11, 2022

This observation suggests that when Covid enters apartment buildings, it will be difficult to eliminate, especially when masking discipline has fallen.

Needless to say, China has an uphill battle in Shanghai, but at least they’re still fighting. In contrast, here in the West it is becoming increasingly clear that they really want to kill us. From Scientist GM:

Eric Adams attended a superspreader event without a mask, then a mask-less event honoring the disabled. He has now tested positive for the coronavirus. This man is the mayor.I can only shake my head pic.twitter.com/MKmhpbSWYN

– Olayemi Olurin (@msolurin) April 10, 2022