Author: Lambert Strether of Corrente.

For readers of Naked Capitalism, “Covid was airborne” (“Top 10 scientific rationales for airborne transmission of SARS-CoV-2“) is at least familiar, for many (eg, me) it’s true, as any statement is true[1].

In this article, I will use the most recent Grill Club Super spread event to showcase our political class real Consider airborne transmissions (since the Grill Club is a good sample of the nation’s political class. Spoiler alert: none of these folks should come close to policy).But first, I want to take a brief look at Japan so we can set a baseline by seeing what a society that takes airborne seriously looks like (and how much homework a political class has done)[2] looks like).

Japan’s Recognition of Airborne Transmission

From the British Medical Journal (March 2022), “How Japan survived covid-19“:

Reasons cited include the public’s willingness to comply with the measures, and Japan’s early adoption of the “3Cs” (avoiding close contact, enclosed spaces, and close dialogue) — built on the country’s traditional approach to infectious disease control — in anticipation that scientists now have concerns about SARS-CoV-2 infection. Knowledge of the airborne nature of CoV-2 transmission.

In addition, masks were commonplace even before the pandemic, and most experts believe that a culture of politeness when traveling on public transport — such as maintaining distance and reluctance to speak loudly on the phone — helps limit The virus spreads, even as the country’s sprawling trains and subway system continue to be crowded during rush hour. Japan’s low obesity rate is also thought to be a factor.

Here is a poster showing the 3Cs:

Readers will remember cases of super-spreading events in the world Skagit Valley ChoirA sort of Guangzhou restaurantand Oslo nightclub on Christmas Eve. In all cases, the venue is a 3C violator.

It’s worth taking a moment to understand why only aerosol propagation theory can account for superspreading events.From CNN:

“Everyone is in a room [i.e., in a closed space] Been breathing fresh air from someone else’s lungs on the grill. Depending on the ventilation rate, as much as 3 or 4 percent of the air you breathe may come from someone else’s lungs at G,” [ Joseph Allen, director of the Healthy Buildings Program at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health] said.

He described it as a breath backwash.

“Normally, that’s not a problem, right? We do that all the time. We’re exchanging our respiratory microbiome with each other all the time.

As I urge: Breathing is a social relationship. Back to Allen:

But if someone is sick and contagious… those aerosols can carry the virus. This is a problem. “

There are two other propagation theories: Fomites and Droplets, but only aerosol propagation accounts for superspreading events. Imagine walking into a crowded room with a cigarette.Now imagine having the Covid virus on the surface of the cigarette (pollutants). How would I create a super spread event? Well, by touching everyone in the room with a cigarette. It seems unlikely. Now imagine that I’m spreading the corona virus through my nose and I have a smoker’s cough. I coughed and the droplets flew into the air, but were heavy enough to land on the ground within a small radius around me. How would I create a super spread event? By coughing next to a large number of people within that small radius. Again, unlikely.Now imagine I’m spreading the coronavirus from my nose by breathing in tiny particles (aerosols) floating in the air:

Marina Jabsky, an industrial hygienist with the New York Council for Occupational Safety and Health, explains how to think about it.

“If you’ve ever been in the same room with a smoker, no matter how far you stand from them, you’re going to smell smoke, right? Because,” Jabsky said.

That’s why only aerosol transmission can account for super-spreading events like the grill club we’re now turning to.

The grill club fiasco

this Grill Club is “one of the oldest and most prestigious news organizations… Its 65 active members represent major newspapers, news services, news magazines and broadcast networks. Membership is by invitation only and historically Almost exclusive to prominent newspaper personalities, including the Washington newspaper bureau chief.” They hold an annual gala where invitees are selected from an “A-List” of the political class, which includes many government officials. comedy sketch Preparation and performance about life in politics class.From post:

The hours-long dinner featured lighthearted speeches and political skits by journalists, including a coronavirus-clad performer.

The last two Gridiron shingdigs were canceled due to the pandemic, so a return to “normal” this year is a big deal for them, as it turns out: 630 attendees, 72 (at the time of writing) caught Covid. 11%. This is admirable.

First, we will look at the Gridiron superspreading event from the perspective of 3Cs and aerosol transmission, and then we will look at the issue of “personal risk”. Finally, we’ll ask some questions a sociologist might ask.

First off, a grill is obviously an enclosed space, a crowded place and a close-contact environment. In addition, attendees were singing, which is known to increase risk (from Skagit Valley Choir).From politics:

Eating, talking loudly, and even singing indoors during a pandemic has been shown to greatly increase the risk of virus transmission. At the Gridiron dinner, attendees sat next to each other for hours, eating and drinking, talking to each other—even singing “Auld Lang Syne” hand in hand at the end.

The situation means that infected people “are releasing a lot of virus into the air,” Marr said. “And … given that we’re seeing a lot of cases here, there’s probably not enough ventilation.”

Two, one interesting details:

about [the Washington Renaissance Hotel] Said the club is taking steps to notify anyone sitting next to or across from the infected guest.

This reminds me strongly Korean Restaurant Research Airflow from ceiling air conditioners blew the virus from the index case to three other cases 6.5 meters away. So I want to understand the airflow around these three tables. (Of course there could be a problem with one of the blocked servers. I would like to understand how the server shuffles between tables. Of course they are also tested.)

Third, the participants did not reduce the 3C risk by disguising.From Wapo:

The dinner was supposed to reflect a return to normal after being canceled for the past two years due to the pandemic. Few guests wore masks or observed social distancing, according to attendees. Only the service staff remained masked throughout the night. While organizers asked attendees to show their vaccination cards at the door, there was no requirement for a test.

Fourth, participants do not need to show negative test:

A-list guests are required to show proof of vaccinations, but not a negative test.

Let us now turn to the concept of “personal risk”. WaPo gives current publicity line:

Government officials and many experts say that more than two years after the pandemic, individuals now have the tools they need to decide how much risk they’re willing to take — and that every social interaction, big or small, comes with covid-19 and Covid-19. Non-zero risk of other respiratory diseases.

Think of it as reading.Let’s see how brain genius Anthony Fauci performs his personal risk calculation:

Fauci says he has not tested positive [was he tested?], said he followed CDC guidelines when he decided to attend the dinner. He said the risk of his personal decision to participate was low for three reasons: He was vaccinated and boosted…

Neither vaccination nor booster immunizations can stop transmission, so Fauci’s risk calculations are worthless if the goal is to avoid a superspreading event.

…Proof of vaccinations required to enter dinner…

Ditto. Fauci didn’t even ask if a negative test was required?

… According to CDC metrics, DC is classified as having a low burden of disease. This classification also means that individuals can go without masks in indoor settings.

This is stupid (assuming Fauci believes this stuff, which shows how CDC metrics encourage people to be idiots).you will not be infected county; you are infected site. I bet CO₂ The levels in that room were high (meaning people were breathing each other’s air, hence the superspreading event). I bet all the attendees including Fauci and Walensky didn’t know about CO₂ Monitor is, or is it a good proxy for shared air (you exhale carbon monoxide₂, hopefully not a virus, but maybe so). These people are incapable of judging their own risks, let alone imposing their views on others.

When it comes to risk, there is always the question of how to explain the existence of sociopaths:

so @The Mayor of New York At the grill dinner, a super communicator with 67 cases and ??

He knew his was exposed, but he took part @ReelAbilities The festival goes maskless, exposing hundreds of vulnerable disabled people.

Now he abruptly canceled all his events, company. @MeetThePress pic.twitter.com/jA99SXVIsd

— Brooklyn Cybele (@brooklyncybele) April 10, 2022

Finally, let’s think like a sociologist about the “grill superspreading event” and ask a few questions.

First, how many blocked servers are infected with Covid?

Does anyone know if there is any data on how many people involved in Gridiron activities (ie servers, custodians, security, etc.) are now infected with COVID? How many are their family members? How many colleagues are not at the event, but work next to people who don’t know they have the virus?

— Dr. Ellie Murray, Doctor of Science (@EpiEllie) April 10, 2022

Second, who are the index cases?

Third, will epidemiological studies be conducted?

Will the CDC conduct an epi investigation into the Gridiron outbreak? After all the guest list and who’s at the event are fixed – which makes some aspects of it easier (and produces great information). Plus, the director of the CDC was there.

— Lakshmi Ganapathy (@Lakshmi_RKG) April 11, 2022

I’m guessing the answers will be “we’ll never know”, “we’ll never know” and “no” respectively. It’s worth noting that if science is a consideration in our public health agencies, the Gridiron Superspreading incident will at least give us some good information about one-way masking.

in conclusion

With both Fauci and Varensky present, I have to think they both see the Grill Club arrangement as a model of “normality.” Vax-only is a strategy – the political class seems to think that vaccination prevents transmission, or that transmission doesn’t matter if you don’t get hospitalized[3]– Non-pharmaceutical interventions like masks will be ruthlessly discarded or ignored (as in Japan’s successful 3C model or general ventilation). Only aerosol transmission can account for superspreading events, and Fauci and Valensky have nothing to say about it. In the end, for all the chin-stroking about personal risk, Fauci’s own assessment of personal risk is sloppy and deceitful. Neither Fauci nor Varensky should be within a mile of public health policy, but they are running the show. It used to be weird. Of course, you can’t help but gloat, and the “return to normal” event on the Beltway has also infected a large chunk of the nation’s political class, and probably more. Mild of course. I mean, if it was worse, it would be damned.

notes

[1] Here are two articles on why the WHO and CDC took so long to use the word “air” (nature; time). Both are good, but too charitable.

[2] Assuming they aren’t anti-social and insecticidal, an increasingly tenable position.

[3] An idea so anti-social that I find it hard for me to understand it.