Sandwiches, a weekly lunch staple for millions of people in the UK, are poised to reach new highs as food costs and labour, packaging and energy bills soar.

ukraine war Raw material prices for one of the UK’s most popular sandwiches, BLT (bacon, lettuce and tomato) have risen by an average of 56% since January 1, 2019, according to compiled data, and the supply chain’s heavy lifting in the wake of the pandemic lockdown. Home Commodities Research Group Mintec and Financial Times.

The rise was driven by a sharp rise in the price of sunflower oil, of which Ukraine is the world’s largest exporter. But prices for other ingredients are also soaring: Wheat and tomatoes have each risen 63 percent since the start of 2019, while lettuce has risen by nearly a quarter. Pork was the only ingredient that stayed level.

Food manufacturers and retailers say they have never had to deal with such a rapid surge in all input costs. The assembly and distribution of sandwiches, which require fresh ingredients, large factories, labor and just-in-time, refrigerated shipping, are emblematic of the struggles they face.

Rising lunch costs will be another Consumer Wallet Burdenand increased pressure as manufacturers start to recover from the worst of Covid-19.

“In that sense, sandwiches are a barometer of the economy,” said Jim Winship, director of the British Sandwich and Takeaway Foods Association, adding that record prices for key ingredients would push consumers to new highs for sandwiches.

Sean Allen, chief executive of food sourcing specialist Prestige Purchasing, warned that “a protracted conflict, coupled with prolonged sanctions on the Russian economy, is likely to push inflation to levels not seen in a generation”.

Not only is Ukraine a major supplier of sunflower oil, but Russia and Ukraine together supply about a quarter of the oil world wheat, the main ingredient of bread.Sandwich makers are also higher energy costs Running factories – some in the industry say they have doubled in the past few months – and rising labour costs due to staff shortages and rising living wages across the country.

Sandwich makers have also been grappling with supply issues, Winship said. Producers are working to heat up multi-tunnels to grow fresh salad foods during the cold spring months. The challenge was exacerbated by a truck driver strike last month in Spain, a major exporter of tomatoes and lettuce.

Pork is the only BLT ingredient that has yet to see significant growth. European hog prices fell sharply in late 2021 and early 2022 after an outbreak of African swine fever in Germany prevented the country from exporting to China.In the UK, downward pressure intensifies due to surplus of pigs on farms Slaughterhouse labor shortage.

But prices have started to rise in recent weeks after the size of European breeding herds dwindled. Rising input costs have exacerbated the increase, but have yet to impact pork prices, according to the National Swine Association.

Sam Page, managing director of sandwich maker Simply Lunch, said packaging prices — which make up about 10 to 12 percent of sandwich production costs — have soared by about 25 percent. Simple Lunch now charges retailers around £1.70 for a sandwich, around 30% more than before Covid.

Market data firm Kantar said that the price of prepackaged sandwiches for consumers rose 8% in the 12 weeks ended Feb. 20 this year compared with the same period in 2020. This year, the cost of their “meal deals,” which typically include sandwiches, drinks and snacks, have risen between 5% and 16%. Sandwiches made on-site by companies like Pret A Manger have seen a similar inflation factor.

Shore Capital analyst Clive Black said the worst price hikes have yet to hit consumers.But he warned: “Supply chains really can’t sustain so much cost inflation if they don’t pass it on [to consumers]. “

Winship said manufacturers “have no choice” but to charge more for sandwiches: “I think there’s been some resistance starting with retailers, going up in price, but I think everyone’s accepted now that it’s It’s unavoidable and unavoidable.”

In a labor-intensive industry with tight profit margins and time frames, there is little way to mitigate cost crunch. Page said it takes 17 people on the line to make a BLT sandwich, with wage costs rising between 5% and 25% depending on the role.

“We’re looking for ways to automate what we’re doing [but it] Quite limited due to the amount of raw materials we use and the sophistication of our products. Getting a robot to put lettuce into a sandwich is quite difficult,” he said.

labor shortage That means most manufacturers are likely to have 10% to 15% less capacity, Black said.

Greencore, the UK’s largest sandwich maker, declined to comment in detail, but then-CEO Patrick Coveney recently stressed more limited scope Due to previous labor shortages since it started last year.

Dan Silverston, managing director of Soho Sandwich, which makes about 300,000 sandwiches a week, said the whole process was complicated: “It’s a high-risk business — it’s not just about getting bread and making Put something on it. It’s about yield, the taste panel, making sure allergens are monitored, working with the supply chain to make sure the supply is stable.”

The period of soaring costs comes as demand for sandwiches rebounded early in the pandemic.

It’s a high-risk business – it’s not just about getting bread and putting something on it

Marks and Spencer, which sells 100 million sandwiches a year, said demand returned to pre-pandemic levels in March after sales plummeted during early lockdowns. BLT, the retailer’s most popular flavour, is priced at £3.30 after rising prices in 2020 due to soaring pork costs.

Page said he was concerned that there was a cap on what people were willing to pay for a sandwich, which could keep them from producing.At the same time, there is little that manufacturers can do Reduce the number of ingredients No consumer found the problem.

But Winship believes that despite inflationary pressures, past experience suggests that more expensive sandwiches may sell well in a challenging economic environment.

“In the recession, we’ve seen the high end of the market actually grow. People don’t go to restaurants, they have good sandwiches and stay at their desks,” he said.

Additional reporting by Chelsea’s Bruce Lockhart