[ad_1]
The author is a professor of economics at the Kozminski University in Warsaw and a former Polish finance minister
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine took its toll. Most tragic is the horrific loss of life and human suffering, but the material damage is also enormous. Before the war, the International Monetary Fund forecast Ukraine’s gross domestic product to grow by 3.6 percent this year. Now the Economist Intelligence Unit assumes that its real value will fall by a staggering 46.5%.
Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said that considering the damage already done and the expected decline in production in the coming years, Losses will exceed $1tnof which the damage to infrastructure amounts to $120 billion.
In the current phase of the crisis, humanitarian and military assistance is most urgent. However, one day, the gunfire will stop. The next day, not only immediate help, but long-term support is also important.
understandably, Ukraine is eager to join the EU. It should be recognized over time and not through any special program or fast path. Ukraine must meet the conditions for membership, as expected by other candidate countries. Take Ukraine as an example, Economic de-oligarchization of fundamental importance. Corrupt economic and political structures have hampered the country’s development for many years. In 2021, Ukraine’s per capita GDP will be only 74% of the 1989 level in purchasing power parity terms.
To support the reconstruction of Ukraine, the EU should establish a special long-term financial instrument – the Ukraine Reconstruction European Fund. Parts of successive billions of euros should fund infrastructure investment and human capital development. Launching such a fund, which the European Commission has invited the UK, Norway and Switzerland to join, is no easy task. This turned out to be far more expensive than supplying weapons against the Russian aggressors.
EU plans to spend hundreds of billions of euros Funding the EU’s economic recovery from the pandemic. The energy transition and the transition to renewable energy are equally costly.EU must not renege on last year’s arrangements COP26 Summit to combat global warming. Even in extraordinary circumstances like war, it cannot be forgotten that climate change is the greatest challenge facing humanity.
The second aid tool for Ukraine should be a sharp reduction in its foreign debt. I know from experience how important this is. In 1994, as Poland’s finance minister, I signed an agreement with the London Club to halve the debt of private banks. This totaled $6.3 billion, or 5.7% of GDP at the time. This is a boon for public finances, but more importantly, it allows access to world capital markets and opens Poland to Western investment.
At the end of 2021, Ukraine’s total public debt is about $94 billion, or 61.7% of GDP. Among them, the foreign debt is about 57 billion US dollars. The West has the ability to drastically reduce these obligations, or even eliminate them altogether. Ukrainian partners should announce their willingness to help, linking gradual debt reduction with de-oligarchization and the creation of a social market economy to replace corrupt state capitalism.
A third form of aid to Ukraine requires China’s participation.Ten years ago, Ukraine was not asked to join The so-called “16+1” mechanism, the Eastern European part of China’s Belt and Road Initiative. Now, once the ceasefire is announced, President Xi Jinping should call President Zelensky, invite Ukraine to join the group, and announce his readiness to help rebuild the shattered economy.
This behavior is not anti-Russian, anti-EU, or a sign of Chinese expansionism, but a sign of China’s willingness to join the process of overcoming the crisis in Ukraine. It could also revive the somewhat shaky progress of the Belt and Road Initiative in our region. China’s construction industry is severely overcapacity and is looking for opportunities to exploit it abroad. It has extensive experience in infrastructure investment, including roads, bridges, tunnels, ports, airports, railway lines, power grids and internet networks. From South Asia, the Middle East and Africa to some European countries, Chinese companies have shown that they can adapt to the most diverse conditions abroad.
Combined, European funds, debt cancellation and Chinese aid will give Ukraine a huge boost in recovery from the devastation of the war. Once political conditions allow, Ukraine must be helped economically because it cannot cope on its own.
[ad_2]
Source link