The value of global trade fell 2.8% in February-March as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine led to a sharp drop in container ship traffic between the two countries, according to the Kiel Institute for World Economic Research.

This data Research from a German research institute shows for the first time how much the conflict in Ukraine and widespread Western sanctions on Russia have affected global trade since the invasion began on February 24.

The biggest impact was on trade with Russia, as the country’s imports fell 9.7% in March from the previous month, while exports fell 5%, according to the Kiel Institute. Its metrics track shipping data from 500 ports in real time, seasonally adjusting import and export values ??to provide a measure of trade activity.

“The actual distortions caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and sanctions imposed by the West, as well as the high level of uncertainty among companies with ties to Russia, are significantly hindering trade in March,” said Vincent Star, head of trade indicators at Kiel said Vincent Stamer.

Container traffic at Russia’s three busiest container ports, St Petersburg, Vladivostok and Novorossiysk, has halved in the past month due to sanctions imposed on the country and the withdrawal of many Western brands, the institute said. . Odessa, the main port of Ukraine It added that the Black Sea is “virtually isolated from international maritime trade”.

The Ukraine war had a chilling effect on EU trade, with EU exports falling 5.6% and imports falling 3.4% in March. The impact on the United States was more modest, with exports down 3.4% and imports down 0.6%.

By contrast, the impact on China was minimal, with exports falling 0.9% last month while imports rose 0.9%. Beijing is more supportive of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine than the West and does not support international sanctions on Moscow.

China’s virus-free lockdown has so far had little impact on port traffic in cities like Shanghai, but they do increase congestion on container ships, the institute said. About 12 percent of all cargo shipped globally is stranded on stationary ships — a figure just over two months last year.

The figures are in line with separate monthly data compiled by JPMorgan and ratings firm Standard & Poor’s, which showed the global export purchasing managers’ index fell to 48 in March from 51 the previous month, the lowest level since July 2020 , at a time when many countries had severe coronavirus outbreaks with restrictions in place.

It was also below the 50 mark, suggesting that most businesses reported a contraction in exports compared to the previous month.

The slump in global manufacturing exports was widespread geographically, with two-thirds of countries surveyed reporting contractions, the Purchasing Managers’ Index showed.

war disrupted Supply of major resources and commodities Examples include corn, wheat, potash, neon, nickel and palladium from Russia and Ukraine, the world’s two largest producers of these commodities, driving up energy and food prices and suppressing production at several auto and truck makers .

Trade pressure is likely to increase as the United States and the European Union prepare to impose a new round of sanctions on Russia in response to allegations of atrocities committed by the Russian military in Ukraine, including in towns near Kyiv.

EU plan Targeting Russian coal importsexpanding restrictions on the country’s banking sector and imposing a €10 billion export ban in areas such as quantum computers and advanced semiconductors, and a €5.5 billion ban on products such as wood, cement, seafood and alcohol.

Washington is coordinating action against Moscow with other G7 and EU nations, preparing to ban new investments in Russia while tightening sanctions on the country’s financial institutions, state-owned companies and government officials.