The U.S. is expected to record another month of strong job growth in March as higher wages lure more workers back into the labor force, giving the Federal Reserve the green light to keep doing more work. radical policy If necessary to curb inflation.

Employers in the world’s largest economy will add 490,000 jobs last month, down from 678,000 jobs, according to a consensus forecast compiled by Bloomberg create February, but enough to bring the unemployment rate down to 3.7%.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the data at 8:30 a.m. ET on Friday, and monthly wage growth is expected to be in surprising pause in February.

Average hourly earnings are expected to rise 0.4% per month, equivalent to a 5.5% increase from a year earlier, as companies continue to compete for talent and rush to fill a near-record number of job openings. For each unemployed person, there are about 1.7 job openings.

with salary Increase Concerns related to the new coronavirus receded further, with the proportion of Americans employed or looking for work gradually rising, but still below pre-pandemic levels.

The gap is expected to narrow slightly in March, with the labor force participation rate expected to edge up 0.1 percentage point to 62.4%. In February 2020, the ratio was 63.4%.

The employment figures were collected as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine escalated sharply, triggering a surge in oil and other commodity prices. Despite heightened uncertainty and soaring costs, the U.S. labor market remains very tight by historical standards.

At a news conference in mid-March after raising interest rates for the first time since 2018, Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell warned the labor market was “tightening to unhealthy levels” and expressed concern that rising wages could affect the labor market. price pressure.

With inflation in fastest speed For 40 years, the Fed has signaled a steady tightening of monetary policy after two years of intense stimulus.

official said clear will Accelerate the pace further and achieve a rate hike of at least half a percentage point this year — something that hasn’t been done since May 2000.

According to the latest forecasts, most policymakers expect interest rates to approach 2% by the end of the year, from the current 0.25% to 0.50%, and eventually rise to 2.8% in 2023. That was above the median “neutral” rate forecast and signaled that the policy stance was beginning to limit economic activity.

Despite the tightening in pricing, FOMC members and other bank branch presidents do not believe their efforts to rein in inflation will lead to a sharp rise in unemployment or a recession.

The bond market has been flickering possible warning signs The curve tracks the difference between two-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields following an inversion this week in a widely watched part of the yield curve.