For weeks, Chinese officials and analysts have backed Russia’s claim that NATO’s expansion in Europe triggered its invasion of Ukraine. Now they point to a new specter to justify their support for Russia’s war: an “Indo-Pacific NATO” that could eventually force China to decouple from the West and become self-sufficient in everything from food to semiconductors.

Chinese diplomats have been verbally offensive since Xi and Joe Biden refused to change their opposing assessments of the conflict during a two-hour phone call on March 18, arguing that the U.S.-led coalition is just as threatening to Beijing as They go to Moscow the same.

Much of their anger has been directed at Biden’s “free and open Indo-Pacific” strategy, inherited from Donald Trump, which aims to unite the United States, Japan, Australia and India on a united front against China.

“NATO has continued to strengthen and expand and conduct military interventions in countries such as Yugoslavia, Iraq, Syria and Afghanistan,” said Deputy Foreign Minister Le Yucheng. one day After the president’s conference call.

“The Indo-Pacific strategy is as dangerous as NATO’s strategy of expanding eastward in Europe,” he added. “If left unchecked, it will have unimaginable consequences and ultimately drive the Asia-Pacific region [region] over the edge of the abyss. “

To counter Biden’s “real goal” of establishing an “Indo-Pacific version of NATO”, Le’s boss, Foreign Minister Wang Yi, met his Indian counterpart in New Delhi on Friday.

On Tuesday, Wang addressed the Organization of Islamic Cooperation in Islamabad, where he touted a $400 billion China-led project involving 54 Islamic countries. China, India and Pakistan, with a combined population of 3 billion, all abstained from voting on a UN resolution condemning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Alicia García Herrero, chief economist for Asia Pacific at French investment bank Natixis, said that as the Ukraine crisis pushes the U.S. and the European Union closer, China is seeking to strengthen its ties with developing countries. economic and diplomatic relations to complement its partnership with Russia. and resource-rich Middle Eastern countries.

At a time when the US and the EU are trying to push China into a corner, she said: “China has taken and expanded that corner. . . China is building this sphere of influence and making it self-reliant. [strategy] much more believable.”

Ni Lexiong, an independent military analyst in Shanghai, said China needs to take a long-term perspective when assessing the situation in Ukraine and its relationship with Russia. “If we don’t [handle the Ukraine crisis] Yes, in 30 years the West will treat China like Russia,” Ni said.

Chinese officials are increasingly concerned that such treatment could include broad sanctions similar to those imposed on Russia by the United States and the European Union. In this case, they argue, China will need Russia’s support, just as Russia needs China’s support now.

Hu Xijin, a former editor of the Global Times, a Chinese nationalist newspaper, said Xi Jinping’s “unlimited” Working with Putin China will be well served in any “strategic showdown” with the US over Taiwan or similar flashpoint issues.

“With Russia as a partner, China will not be afraid if the U.S. carries out maximum strategic coercion against China. [a] US energy blockade, our food supply will be safe,” he wrote in an article Recent Columns. “So will [our supply of] Other raw materials

“We must continue to build up our strength and make conflict with China increasingly unbearable for the United States. Russia is China’s most important partner in achieving this goal.”

Russia, however, is of little help to China in securing supplies of high-tech components vital to its vast manufacturing base, such as semiconductors and the largely Western machinery and software needed to make those components.

If China ever faced sanctions similar to those imposed on Russia, “they would be devastating to China’s ability to remain a manufacturing superpower,” said Dan Wang of Beijing-based consultancy Gavekal Dragonomics.

As a result, Andrew Gilholm of consultancy Control Risks believes Xi must pursue “decoupling on China’s terms”. That will require securing food and energy supplies with Russia’s help while avoiding U.S. sanctions on technology, finance and other areas where it remains dependent on the West.

“The idea has always been to build China’s diversity and self-reliance as quickly as possible,” Gilholm said. But after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, “the motives have risen to another level: now it almost has to be seen as a national security issue, and an existential one”.

China lifted phytosanitary restrictions on Russian wheat exports on February 24, the same day Putin’s forces invaded Ukraine, and can now thank itself for boycotting U.S. enforcement of its state-dominated agricultural sector during the 2018 trade war between the two countries The demands of reform – 19.

“Beijing may find their approach very effective,” said Darrin Friedrichs of Sitonia Consulting, an agricultural consultancy in Shanghai. “They have maintained a high level of state control and inventories.

“And now, while many other countries are scrambling to supply, they are relatively insulated,” he added. “These policies have been very successful and signify times like these.”

Additional reporting by Emma Zhou in Beijing