European policy makers scrambling Balance natural gas supply and demand. Excluding Russian gas — if sanctions or so-called self-sanctions escalate — would leave a 40 percent gap.

What should home and business owners do? Turning on alternative sources takes time; you can’t build a fleet of windmills or replenish your inventory overnight. It’s time to think about rationing.

This is not an easy choice. Households, about a quarter of natural gas consumers, are voters. In the UK, inflation and strikes are already resurrecting the specter of the 1970s without adding homework by candlelight. Industry, after two years of the pandemic, is reluctant to reopen factories.

But this is not without precedent. After the Fukushima disaster, Japan’s civil servants, schools and businesses were sweltering with minimal air conditioning before nuclear power was phased out, which provided 30% of the country’s energy at the time. similar measures after this month’s earthquake.

Germany announced on Friday bold plan Get rid of Russian gas by 2024.Reduced use is already Consider in Germany, of which more than half of its natural gas imports come from Russia. The infrastructure watchdog is discussing “inevitable shutdowns” with businesses in the event of an energy supply shortage. Local suppliers have also warned some industrial groups that deliveries may be reduced.

Moderate measures are generally taken to save money. If all European households lowered their thermostats by 1 degree from the current average of 22 degrees Celsius, it would save 10 billion cubic meters (bcm) per year, estimate International Energy Agency. A bolder estimate — more incentive to jump the wire when bills skyrocket — could triple. These savings ranged from 5% to 15% of Gazprom’s annual exports before the war, plan Export to Europe and Turkey.

Industry is worse off; closed production lines come at the expense of economic growth and jobs. UBS analysts make assumptions about gas use and reduction, concluding that 3.1% of European economic activity will be affected by rationing; adding supply chain and other factors, this number could double or double . So far from being a free option, this is one that European governments cannot ignore.