UK merchandise exports have lagged the rest of the world in what experts say is a sign that Brexit could limit the country’s trade performance.

UK merchandise exports fell by 14% in the three months to January compared with the same period in 2020 before the pandemic, according to the World Trade Monitor report released on Friday by the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (CPB). In stark contrast to the global average growth of 8.2%.

The data, combined with figures from the Office for National Statistics, also showed the UK underperformed compared with the developed world, where exports of all goods rose by 5%.

The analysis also showed the UK’s long-term underperformance, as it was the only country tracked by the CPB whose merchandise exports remained below the 2010 average.

“While most other advanced economies have seen a strong recovery in trade, UK exports remain below pre-pandemic levels,” said Jonathan Portes, professor of economics at King’s College London.

Earlier this week, the Office for Budget Responsibility warned that UK trade was “lagging behind the domestic economic recovery” and “missing the bulk of the recovery in global trade”. . . suggesting that Brexit could be a factor”.

As a result, the UK has become a less trade-intensive economy and is expected to reduce its productivity by 4% over the next 15 years, it added.

The OBR noted that “any new free trade agreements or other regulatory changes announced to date have been insufficient” to have a significant impact on its forecast for UK trade. It is estimated that leaving the EU would result in the UK’s total imports and exports being 15% lower than it would have been if the UK remained in the EU.

Earlier this month, Michael Sanders, an outside member of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee, said Brexit “reduces the openness of the economy to trade and labour flows”, thereby reducing the extent to which imports and immigration can ease pressure on capacity.

More than half of UK businesses that have changed supply chains since the end of the Brexit transition period in January 2021 have turned to more domestic sourcing, the Office for National Statistics said on Thursday.

Capital Economics chief UK economist Paul Dales said UK trade data was complicated by methodological changes, but the “big picture” [was] that exit [were] Still trying to recover from Brexit and the pandemic.”

Pantheon Macroeconomics economist Gabriella Dickens backed the OBR’s view that UK trade will remain “soft” over the medium term.

“Export growth looks set to remain subdued,” she said, as UK exporters continue to be “slowly excluded from global supply chains due to the additional administrative burden of EU companies sourcing goods from the UK”.