Rising food prices are a wake-up call for families around the world. UK Food Banks say they have never been so busy.Italian supermarkets reported snap up. In Iraq, there were protests over the price of bread.

Even before the Ukrainian war, food costs were rising due to rising energy prices, transportation bottlenecks and shortages of agricultural labor in some countries. Now, the Russian invasion has sparked further uptick and concerns about a long-term disruption in agricultural-rich Ukraine.

Does this mean now is a good time to invest in agricultural products? Especially with stock valuations stubbornly high despite war-induced turmoil and rising inflation weighing on bonds?

Indeed, commodities have proven to be a good investment in past periods of high inflation. But you have to choose carefully as these markets can be volatile and prices can fall as prices rise.

It’s not surprising wheat price Exports from Russia and Ukraine have increased by more than 40 percent since the beginning of the year, when Russia and Ukraine together supplied about 30 percent of world exports.

Supply concerns have spread across the agricultural market, with prices for corn, soybeans and beef all rising this year.

With Russia and its ally Belarus supplying 40 percent of the world’s exports, concerns about fertilizer, a key input, are exacerbated. Research firm CRU calculates that prices have risen by about 30%, which may not sound too serious in this case until you consider that prices have tripled since the start of 2020.

“The current conflict in Ukraine could have a direct impact on the stability of the global wheat market and, by disrupting the gas and fertilizer markets, negatively affect many grain producers,” the IFPRI said.

Wholesale wheat — like gold you might buy — is clearly impractical for the average private investor. But the futures market is well developed, with hundreds of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) targeting both single crops like wheat and diversified baskets of agricultural commodities. BlackRock, an investment firm that runs commodity funds, said that while “commodity trading poses risks,” it offers “the potential for diversification and upside performance.”

Before you take the plunge, though, take a look at some commodity charts to see how much the price moves. How comfortable would you be on a financial roller coaster like this?

For example, wheat rose 92% in the five-year period from 2017 to 2021. But it fell every year between 2013 and 2016, with a cumulative loss of 46 percent. In the decade to the end of 2021, you’ll earn around 15% — not much for a stomach-churning ride.

There is also an ethical issue to consider. Throughout history, grain speculators have had a decidedly bad reputation. That’s unfair, professional traders say, arguing that financial investors provide the market with the liquidity it needs to transmit price signals quickly. Yes, prices could soar if investors flock in, but the rise gives farmers more incentive to grow more plants and alleviate any shortages. So at the end of the day, grains are cheaper and bread is cheaper.

After the last sharp rise in food prices, in 2007-8, The UN Food and Agriculture Organization report found: “The available empirical evidence does not support the claim that non-commercial traders have increased grain price volatility.”

You may want to keep quiet about your grain stocks, though. Public prejudice is deeply ingrained. Just after the FAO published its study, major charities, led by Oxfam, successfully pushed some banks to close agricultural funds.

In any case, there are other options, especially stocks. Many companies are active in food production, starting with some very well-known names. Nestlé is the largest company by sales and a core element of many portfolios and funds. Other giants include PepsiCo and Unilever.

Solid company for uncertain times, I’m sure. But they may not give you the commodity market exposure you want. The cost of goods sold by these groups is often a fraction of the final price, profit, and profit. “You may not see much change in the price of packaged bread in Waitrose, but in the Middle East, prices are rising rapidly,” said Carlos Mera, head of agricultural commodities market research at Rabobank.

Not surprisingly, Nestlé’s stock has barely changed since before the crisis. They fell when the battle began (The company is big in Russia) but then bounced back (Russian business is only a small part of the whole).

To get closer to the cutting edge, you might consider Global Grain Trading.in Chicago Archer Daniels MidlandThe company, which has investments around the world, including in Eastern Europe, has seen its shares rise 15% since the conflict began and 26% since the start of 2022. Bungea competitor, made similar gains.

Or what about fertilizer producers? The choice is trickier: Some people make fertilizer by mining and converting their own reserves of potash, so they have some protection against rising gas costs. But others use ammonia — a natural gas-based feedstock — and are therefore exposed. Shares of Canadian potash giant Nutrien have risen 37% since Vladimir Putin’s tank was launched and 43% since Jan. 1. WoundShares in Norwegian rivals that use natural gas as a feedstock were flat.

Of course, there are many agriculture-focused funds and investment trusts, which will give you diversification and exposure to limit your risk. For example, the top three holdings of the MSCI Global Agricultural Producers ETF include Nutrien and Archer Daniels, as well as U.S. tractor maker Deere.

Obviously, a lot depends on how long the Ukrainian war lasts. No one knows, so no one knows whether the Ukrainian harvest will lose 10% or 50% this year. Sowing will begin in a few weeks.

But given all the other factors driving prices up, especially energy costs, high prices are likely to persist. So while the initial push to the market is already showing, there may be more to come. This is a period of inflation.

Stefan Wagstyl is editor of FT Money and FT Wealth. e-mail:[email protected]. Twitter:@stefanwagstyl