Dutch central bank chief calls on ECB to raise rates in Q4

Dutch central bank chief calls on ECB to raise rates in Q4

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Klaas Knot has become the first member of the ECB’s Governing Council to publicly say that interest rates should be raised this year, warning that inflation in the euro zone will remain at 4 percent for most of the year.

The head of the Dutch central bank called on the ECB to end net bond purchases “as soon as possible” in preparation for a fourth-quarter rate hike, which would be its first in more than a decade.

He made the remarks in an interview with Dutch TV show Buitenhof, just days after ECB President Christine Lagarde refuse to exclude The rate hike this year suggests it may accelerate plans to end net bond purchases next month.

Until last week, the ECB considered the possibility of a rate hike this year “highly unlikely”.

Markets last week in response to Lagarde’s comments transfer Bloomberg money market trading data showed a 0.5 percentage point hike by the end of the year. Such a move would bring the central bank’s deposit rate to zero for the first time since 2014.

“I personally expect our first rate hike to be around the fourth quarter of this year,” Nott said. “Usually we would raise rates by 25 percentage points, and I have no reason to expect that we would have taken a different step.”

The head of the Dutch central bank, one of the more conservative “hawks” of the ECB’s 25 Governing Council members, said he sees a second rate hike early next year.

“Right now we’re still on the gas,” Nott said, referring to bond-buying by the European Central Bank, which has amassed 2.2 trillion euros in assets since the outbreak of the pandemic nearly a year ago. “We have to end this situation as soon as possible. This is just adding fuel to the fire.”

In December, the ECB agreed to “gradually” reduce its asset purchases to 20 billion euros a month from October, but did not set an end date.

Since then, euro zone inflation climbed to a new record of 5.1 percent in January, defying expectations that it would subside this year.

In response, Lagarde said that “at the Governing Council meeting there was unanimous concern about the impact of inflation”.

Higher-than-expected inflation also led the Fed and Bank of England to shift to a more “hawkish” policy stance. The Bank of England raised its main policy rate to 0.5% on Thursday, less than two months away from raising it to 0.25%, while investors expect the Federal Reserve to raise rates five times this year.

Lagarde said last week that the ECB would stick to the “sequence” it had agreed to raise interest rates after net purchases were halted, adding that the Governing Council would “do everything incrementally” and that “no act hastily”. Nott seemed to agree, saying, “You have to take your foot off the gas before you hit the brake pedal.”

With last week’s ECB meeting signaling a possible “hawkish” shift in policy, analysts have brought forward their expectations for the ECB to start raising rates, with many expecting one or two such moves by December.

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