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While the official pandemic recession is over two months After it started, it became clear that the pandemic was not behind us, as the Omicron variant had already driven a massive increase in the number of COVID cases. On Friday, I’ll be looking for Omicron’s fingerprints in job reports, including frontline wage jobs and workforce participation. I will also continue to track job shortfalls at the sectoral level, particularly lack of job growth in the public sector, and economic recovery that varies by race and ethnicity. With the release of the January data comes the annual benchmarking process: agency surveys are benchmarked against unemployment insurance tax records, and household surveys incorporate new population controls.
This Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) COVID Tracker It showed that the January reference week (January 9-15) reported nearly seven times the number of cases compared to the December reference week. The average number of new cases exceeded 800,000 in the week ended Jan. 15, the peak for Omicron in the United States. That’s almost five times the peak level (164,000) during the delta surge and more than three times the peak of last winter (250,000). The labor market experienced a slowdown in wage employment growth during the Delta surge, and this is likely to happen again (even temporarily) in January decline).
Census Bureau Household Pulse Survey It also provided striking evidence for expectations for January employment data. The number of people not working increased by 6.5 million during the survey period, which ended on December 13, 2021, and ended on January 10, 2022. The main reason for this sharp rise was a threefold increase — an increase of 5.8 million people — reporting they were out of work because they were caring for someone or they had coronavirus symptoms. Figure A illustrates the dramatic increase in the number of people not working because of caring for themselves or others in recent surveys.
Number of people not working surges as Omicron surges in early January: Millions of people not working because they have or are caring for Covid patients
| date | Weighted population (millions) |
|---|---|
| 2020-05-05 | 1.31 |
| 2020-05-12 | 1.81 |
| 2020-05-19 | 1.93 |
| 2020-05-26 | 1.64 |
| 2020-06-02 | 1.73 |
| 2020-06-09 | 1.86 |
| 2020-06-16 | 2.06 |
| 2020-06-23 | 2.35 |
| 2020-06-30 | 2.79 |
| 2020-07-07 | 3.06 |
| 2020-07-14 | 3.90 |
| 2020-07-21 | 3.81 |
| 2020-07-28 | Not applicable |
| 2020-08-04 | Not applicable |
| 2020-08-11 | Not applicable |
| 2020-08-18 | Not applicable |
| 2020-08-25 | Not applicable |
| 2020-08-31 | 2.70 |
| 2020-09-01 | Not applicable |
| 2020-09-08 | Not applicable |
| 2020-09-14 | 2.20 |
| 2020-09-15 | Not applicable |
| 2020-09-22 | Not applicable |
| 2020-09-28 | 2.39 |
| 2020-09-29 | Not applicable |
| 2020-10-06 | Not applicable |
| 2020-10-12 | 2.54 |
| 2020-10-13 | Not applicable |
| 2020-10-20 | Not applicable |
| 2020-10-26 | 2.95 |
| 2020-10-27 | Not applicable |
| 2020-11-03 | Not applicable |
| 2020-11-09 | 4.21 |
| 2020-11-10 | Not applicable |
| 2020-11-17 | Not applicable |
| 2020-11-23 | 4.82 |
| 2020-11-24 | Not applicable |
| 2020-12-01 | Not applicable |
| 2020-12-07 | 5.88 |
| 2020-12-08 | Not applicable |
| 2020-12-15 | Not applicable |
| 2020-12-21 | 6.59 |
| 2020-12-22 | Not applicable |
| 2020-12-29 | Not applicable |
| 2021-01-05 | Not applicable |
| 2021-01-12 | Not applicable |
| 2021-01-18 | 6.65 |
| 2021-01-19 | Not applicable |
| 2021-01-26 | Not applicable |
| 2021-02-01 | 5.90 |
| 2021-02-02 | Not applicable |
| 2021-02-09 | Not applicable |
| 2021-02-15 | 4.30 |
| 2021-02-16 | Not applicable |
| 2021-02-23 | Not applicable |
| 2021-03-01 | 3.52 |
| 2021-03-02 | Not applicable |
| 2021-03-09 | Not applicable |
| 2021-03-15 | 3.12 |
| 2021-03-16 | Not applicable |
| 2021-03-23 | Not applicable |
| 2021-03-29 | 2.63 |
| 2021-03-30 | Not applicable |
| 2021-04-06 | Not applicable |
| 2021-04-13 | Not applicable |
| 2021-04-20 | Not applicable |
| 2021-04-26 | 2.49 |
| 2021-04-27 | Not applicable |
| 2021-05-04 | Not applicable |
| 2021-05-10 | 2.14 |
| 2021-05-11 | Not applicable |
| 2021-05-18 | Not applicable |
| 2021-05-24 | 1.89 |
| 2021-05-25 | Not applicable |
| 2021-06-01 | Not applicable |
| 2021-06-07 | 2.11 |
| 2021-06-08 | Not applicable |
| 2021-06-15 | Not applicable |
| 2021-06-21 | 1.75 |
| 2021-06-22 | Not applicable |
| 2021-06-29 | Not applicable |
| 2021-07-05 | 1.78 |
| 2021-07-06 | Not applicable |
| 2021-07-13 | Not applicable |
| 2021-07-20 | Not applicable |
| 2021-07-27 | Not applicable |
| 2021-08-02 | 2.02 |
| 2021-08-03 | Not applicable |
| 2021-08-10 | Not applicable |
| 2021-08-16 | 2.94 |
| 2021-08-17 | Not applicable |
| 2021-08-24 | Not applicable |
| 2021-08-30 | 3.95 |
| 2021-08-31 | Not applicable |
| 2021-09-07 | Not applicable |
| 2021-09-13 | 4.65 |
| 2021-09-14 | Not applicable |
| 2021-09-21 | Not applicable |
| 2021-09-27 | 4.20 |
| 2021-09-28 | Not applicable |
| 2021-10-05 | Not applicable |
| 2021-10-11 | 3.72 |
| 2021-10-12 | Not applicable |
| 2021-10-19 | Not applicable |
| 2021-10-26 | Not applicable |
| 2021-11-02 | Not applicable |
| 2021-11-09 | Not applicable |
| 2021-11-16 | Not applicable |
| 2021-11-23 | Not applicable |
| 2021-11-30 | Not applicable |
| 2021-12-07 | Not applicable |
| 2021-12-13 | 2.96 |
| 2022-01-10 | 8.75 |
notes: Population sample of people aged 18 and over who have not worked in the past 7 days.
source: Authors’ analysis of microdata from the US Census Bureau’s Household Pulse Survey (HHPS).
The same data also reported a significant increase in the number of people not working because of not wanting to work, for fear of contracting or spreading the virus, employers temporarily closing due to the pandemic, or for other reasons. Counterintuitively, there was a significant decrease in the number of people reporting not working due to retirement, which may be driven by seasonal factors.But in the long run, the number of retirees has increased during the pandemic, in part because Fewer retirees returning to work; As the virus subsides, I suspect things will get better and more people will return to the workforce.
To be clear, the Household Pulse Survey doesn’t translate one-to-one into the employment data we’ll see on Friday, as it uses a different survey methodology and doesn’t account for seasonal fluctuations — which are between December and January. can be very violent. However, it paints a clear picture that January’s pandemic surge could have an impact on both the number of jobs created and a potential drop in labor force participation.
But it is certain that the number of workers absent due to illness will reach historical levelThe relative scarcity of workers has been one of the factors that has contributed to the increased bargaining power of workers in recent months, especially in leisure and hospitality.As the virus is contained, I expect more workers to enter the workforce, which may remove the temporary levers workers have to use resign And take a better approach to ensuring faster wage growth.
On Friday, I will also continue to track performance Biggest job gap Since February 2020. Employment in the leisure and hospitality sector may temporarily decline due to growth in Omicron and the trend that jobs in the industry are more sensitive to the ebb and flow of the pandemic.
Another sector I’ve been watching closely is government jobs, particularly state and local public sector jobs, which have been slow to rebound compared to the private sector.as the picture shows Figure B, private sector employment fell further during the pandemic recession — losing 16.5% of jobs — but rebounded faster than state and local government jobs — initially losing 7.7%. State and local employment has been struggling recently, with no improvement in six months.
Private sector employment fell further, but rebounded faster than state and local government employment: Percentage change in employment for all private, state and local government employment since February 2020
| total private sector employment | State and Local Employment | |
|---|---|---|
| February 2020 | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| March 2020 | -1.30% | -0.40% |
| April 2020 | -16.50% | -5.20% |
| May 2020 | -13.90% | -7.70% |
| June 2020 | -10.20% | -7.50% |
| July 2020 | -9.00% | -6.60% |
| August 2020 | -8.20% | -5.30% |
| September 2020 | -7.50% | -6.20% |
| October 2020 | -6.70% | -6.80% |
| November 2020 | -6.50% | -6.90% |
| December 2020 | -6.70% | -7.00% |
| January 2021 | -6.60% | -6.40% |
| February 2021 | -6.10% | -6.90% |
| March 2021 | -5.50% | -6.60% |
| April 2021 | -5.40% | -6.40% |
| May 2021 | -4.90% | -6.10% |
| June 2021 | -4.30% | -5.30% |
| July 2021 | -3.70% | -3.90% |
| August 2021 | -3.30% | -4.00% |
| September 2021 | -3.00% | -4.20% |
| October 2021 | -2.40% | -4.60% |
| November 2021 | -2.20% | -4.70% |
| December 2021 | -2.00% | -4.70% |
source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Current Employment Statistics, Survey of Institutions (CES) Public Data Series.
A large portion of the public sector shortage is in state and local education jobs, and the sector has experienced shortages in a variety of occupations, including Teachers and support staff such as bus drivers and teaching assistants. Fortunately, states and localities can Using U.S. Rescue Program Funds Support jobs and invest in fragile infrastructure in education, public health and other vital systems. They have to do it.
Other indicators to be followed in household surveys include the situation of different population groups.black unemployed tick again It was 7.1% in December, while the overall unemployment rate fell to 3.9%. While the survey shows considerable monthly volatility, long-term trends clearly show that white workers have outperformed black or Hispanic workers at the peak of the pandemic recession and in the recovery so far.
On Friday, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will also release their annual benchmark revision of the wage survey based on administrative data from state unemployment insurance tax records. There are two important things to note about this release. Firstly, Preliminary Benchmark Announcement Beginning in August, it indicated that nonfarm payrolls were revised down by 166,000 in March 2021. This reflects a sharp downward revision in private sector employment (-421,000) and a sharp upward revision in government employment (+255,000). Again, these numbers are preliminary and will be updated on Friday.
Second, this benchmarking process doesn’t tell us anything about what’s going on in employment Variety The same adjustments will be made every month from March 2021 to December 2021, starting in March 2021. (However, from April 2020 to March 2021, the total change will “wedge”.) It is worth noting that these benchmark revisions are “sample-based” that may occur within two months of each initial monthly data release. ” has nothing to do with the revision.
Household data released Friday will also reflect updated population estimates from January 2022. These population controls change the weights of the household sample to better reflect changes in the population. It’s worth noting that these changes will not be used to update last month’s data, so caution should be exercised when comparing December 2021 data with January 2022 household survey statistics. The BLS will provide users with a comparison of some relevant metrics to assess the impact of population control.
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