This Fail Taiwan’s GlobalWafers has challenged stereotypes about German efficiency with its €4.3 billion acquisition of Munich-based Siltronic. The German government said it had not had time to review the deal before the deadline expired.

You don’t need to be a conspiracy theorist to wonder who failure is for. Maybe it’s the German politicians, not the Chinese authorities who they accuse of holding back?

Rising East-West tensions mean big economies want more secure chip supplies. Geopolitical experts claim that China could invade Taiwan if resistance to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is weak.

Fortunately, that possibility is still far away. The West relies heavily on Taiwanese tech groups such as chipmaker TSMC and iPhone maker Hon Hai. Germany may indeed want to retain a small wafer supplier.

Fortunately, wafer supply is less threatened by politics than microprocessor production. Japanese manufacturers Sumco and Shin-Etsu dominate the market.

The EU still wants to do better. The forthcoming European Chip Law aims to double the domestic share of semiconductor manufacturing to 20% by 2030.

Superpower politics isn’t the only thing that has changed since GlobalWafer’s first bid in late 2020. An oversupply of semiconductors has turned into a shortage.

World Semiconductor Trade Statistics believes that the global chip market grew by more than a quarter last year and is expected to grow by nearly a tenth by 2022. Weakness in the wafer market has faded, driving up prices and margins.

Siltronic has guided for 2021 sales growth of 15% and an ebitda margin of 32%, which would return to 2019 levels. Higher energy and input costs are offset by higher prices as capacity is produced. Consensus forecasts expect margins to rise to 44% by 2024.

New bids from acquirers closer to home are possible. GlobalWafers is expected to sell its 14% stake in Siltronic. Siltronic shares trade at 11 times next year’s earnings, returning to its 2019 valuation. The new bid will provide an opportunity for speculative investors to benefit from the geopolitical risks affecting Taiwan.